The Sunday Mail
A lot of hopes both at home and in the region are now riding on President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, sworn in yesterday for his first full term after leading his party to a clear victory in difficult circumstances.
He starts with a lot of advantages. There is the goodwill and general recognition that he is a competent person with clean hands, the ultimate negotiator, successful in private life as well as public life, and the first South African President since Nelson Mandela more popular than his own party.
But he faces some tough decisions and hard work. South Africa has seen recession rather than growth; corruption had grown to serious levels; crony capitalism, called state capture down there, had emerged as the most serious brake on the journey to a more equal and growing economy and society as business people, local and foreign, started winning wealth based on who they knew rather than on what they could do.
In addition, South Africa is still one of the most unequal societies in the world, despite the modest progress in the quarter century since the advent of democracy. While some have been able to take advantage of the openings, and President Ramaphosa is one of the most successful, far too many have been left behind.
The recent election fired another warning shot, with the more elitist opposition Democratic Alliance losing support, although remaining the largest opposition party, and the populist Economic Freedom Front gaining votes, although few see it as an alternative government.
Corruption and gross inequality are not, of course, unique to Africa. They occur, and have occurred, in all parts of the world. Anyone glancing at the history of the United States, for example, will note that what was going on in the later 19th century and early 20th century dwarfs the worst of Africa and even now there is a lot of concern that the solid wall that is supposed to exist between Donald Trump’s political and national life on one side and his business empire on the other has far too many missing bricks. But just because it happens is no reason to tolerate it and obviously a determined attack on all the dubious dealings has to be a priority of President Ramaphosa, just as it is in President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration in Zimbabwe. Defeating corruption is not a sufficient condition for sustainable economic growth, but it is a necessary one.
More generally President Ramaphosa has to get the South African economy moving forward again at a decent clip, something that probably will require a lot of economic reform. This is not just an issue for South Africa. The hopes of the entire region are riding on his success. If easily the largest economy in Southern Africa starts growing fast then the rest of us will find life a lot easier. We need the growing markets in what is the only practical engine of economic growth in our neighbourhood. If South Africans grow richer they will want, and be able to afford, to buy more stuff from the rest of us.
Growth also helps solve many of South Africa’s other endemic problems. For a start fast growth does require far more people able to afford more than the bare necessities of survival. Middle income countries require middle income populations, not a small minority of rich and a vast sea of the poor. One reason China was able to accelerate so fast was because it managed to spread the gains of reform as well as the pain.
Throughout Africa it is these economic issues that now dominate political life. Younger generations are properly grateful that their parents, and increasingly their grandparents, won freedom from colonialism or ethnic domination. But it is not the centre of their political life. They want today’s problems solved. And today’s problems mean they want decent jobs, a decent education for their children, and generally a world that is getting better, not staying the same or getting worse. And they expect the new generation of political leadership to respond. Which they are doing. Economic indices are now examined with an attention to detail missing in past decades.
But sometimes legacy problems are still on the front burner. One that President Ramaphosa has to try and sort out is land reform, where progress has been very slow and more radical solutions are being seriously considered. It is going to need every bit of President Ramaphosa’s very strong negotiating skills to create a deal that works and to persuade both the haves and the have-nots that this is the best deal on the table. The Afrikaner farming community should not ignore the lessons of Zimbabwe, where white farmers kept refusing the opportunity of a far better deal than they eventually faced.
As the negotiations that ended apartheid showed, the best time to talk is before action is taken, not once it has started. South Africa largely missed the sort of liberation war that freed most of its neighbours simply because the Afrikaner elite read the writing on the wall and was then prepared to sit down and negotiate a serious and effective transition to democracy that gave without taking. A similar degree of sense is now required.
South Africa and its neighbours face a lot of challenges. But they are not insoluble. President Ramaphosa is not operating in a vacuum. Neighbouring presidents are now all practical people who want to solve problems rather than strut on a stage, pretty much the sort of person he is, and back home there are a lot of South Africans who want something effective done rather than score political points and will be willing to back good policy rather than rhetoric.
So while a lot of hopes ride on President Ramaphosa, he is not alone, rather a very important player on a strong team.
Ramaphosa holds hope of the region and beyond
The Sunday Mail
A lot of hopes both at home and in the region are now riding on President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, sworn in yesterday for his first full term after leading his party to a clear victory in difficult circumstances.
He starts with a lot of advantages. There is the goodwill and general recognition that he is a competent person with clean hands, the ultimate negotiator, successful in private life as well as public life, and the first South African President since Nelson Mandela more popular than his own party.
But he faces some tough decisions and hard work. South Africa has seen recession rather than growth; corruption had grown to serious levels; crony capitalism, called state capture down there, had emerged as the most serious brake on the journey to a more equal and growing economy and society as business people, local and foreign, started winning wealth based on who they knew rather than on what they could do.
In addition, South Africa is still one of the most unequal societies in the world, despite the modest progress in the quarter century since the advent of democracy. While some have been able to take advantage of the openings, and President Ramaphosa is one of the most successful, far too many have been left behind.
The recent election fired another warning shot, with the more elitist opposition Democratic Alliance losing support, although remaining the largest opposition party, and the populist Economic Freedom Front gaining votes, although few see it as an alternative government.
Corruption and gross inequality are not, of course, unique to Africa. They occur, and have occurred, in all parts of the world. Anyone glancing at the history of the United States, for example, will note that what was going on in the later 19th century and early 20th century dwarfs the worst of Africa and even now there is a lot of concern that the solid wall that is supposed to exist between Donald Trump’s political and national life on one side and his business empire on the other has far too many missing bricks. But just because it happens is no reason to tolerate it and obviously a determined attack on all the dubious dealings has to be a priority of President Ramaphosa, just as it is in President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration in Zimbabwe. Defeating corruption is not a sufficient condition for sustainable economic growth, but it is a necessary one.
More generally President Ramaphosa has to get the South African economy moving forward again at a decent clip, something that probably will require a lot of economic reform. This is not just an issue for South Africa. The hopes of the entire region are riding on his success. If easily the largest economy in Southern Africa starts growing fast then the rest of us will find life a lot easier. We need the growing markets in what is the only practical engine of economic growth in our neighbourhood. If South Africans grow richer they will want, and be able to afford, to buy more stuff from the rest of us.
Growth also helps solve many of South Africa’s other endemic problems. For a start fast growth does require far more people able to afford more than the bare necessities of survival. Middle income countries require middle income populations, not a small minority of rich and a vast sea of the poor. One reason China was able to accelerate so fast was because it managed to spread the gains of reform as well as the pain.
Throughout Africa it is these economic issues that now dominate political life. Younger generations are properly grateful that their parents, and increasingly their grandparents, won freedom from colonialism or ethnic domination. But it is not the centre of their political life. They want today’s problems solved. And today’s problems mean they want decent jobs, a decent education for their children, and generally a world that is getting better, not staying the same or getting worse. And they expect the new generation of political leadership to respond. Which they are doing. Economic indices are now examined with an attention to detail missing in past decades.
But sometimes legacy problems are still on the front burner. One that President Ramaphosa has to try and sort out is land reform, where progress has been very slow and more radical solutions are being seriously considered. It is going to need every bit of President Ramaphosa’s very strong negotiating skills to create a deal that works and to persuade both the haves and the have-nots that this is the best deal on the table. The Afrikaner farming community should not ignore the lessons of Zimbabwe, where white farmers kept refusing the opportunity of a far better deal than they eventually faced.
As the negotiations that ended apartheid showed, the best time to talk is before action is taken, not once it has started. South Africa largely missed the sort of liberation war that freed most of its neighbours simply because the Afrikaner elite read the writing on the wall and was then prepared to sit down and negotiate a serious and effective transition to democracy that gave without taking. A similar degree of sense is now required.
South Africa and its neighbours face a lot of challenges. But they are not insoluble. President Ramaphosa is not operating in a vacuum. Neighbouring presidents are now all practical people who want to solve problems rather than strut on a stage, pretty much the sort of person he is, and back home there are a lot of South Africans who want something effective done rather than score political points and will be willing to back good policy rather than rhetoric.
So while a lot of hopes ride on President Ramaphosa, he is not alone, rather a very important player on a strong team.
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