The Sunday Mail
Editor’s Brief
Victoria Ruzvidzo
Greetings to you dear readers. Welcome to this space where we are going to be discussing about anything that pertains to our livelihood and well-being as Zimbabweans. Of course we will lean more towards economic matters in line with President Mnangagwa’s thrust to give more attention to the economy ahead of everything else.
The past few weeks have really been sombre as we have witnessed the rising deaths due to Covid-19. Many have experienced the death of a relative, or know someone who has succumbed to the disease.
The nation has lost prominent people in public and private office, leaving a heavy cloud hanging above our heads. The current state of apprehension is, therefore, quite understandable.
Never in our wildest of dreams did we imagine we could have a disease of such a nature in our lifetime, that has ravaged populations and changed the world order with such precision and speed. Millions have died globally with instances such as the United States of America which is losing thousands of people in a day. It is thus not surprising to find many in a pensive mood as is the case now.
This is a season that must surely pass.
It is to be expected for people to begin to hallucinate and even expect the worst under such circumstances. The young and old are gripped by fear given what surrounds us today, but there is always light at the end of the tunnel.
Indeed Covid-19 poses a clear and present danger not just to lives, but is decimating economies at previously unimaginable levels as countries employ strict lockdowns to save lives while skills, are being lost as many succumb to the disease.
But when the chips are down, as they evidently are, we need to dig deep and strengthen our resolve. It is not the end of the world. Something will give, soon. Zimbabwe is headed for an upper middle economy by 2030.
Prophets of doom would have us think it is now impossible, but look at the signs from agriculture — phenomenal turnaround! There is so much we can salvage as a country.
Barring the effects of the current lockdown, the informal sector will rebound — ask not what the country can do but what you can do for it or for even yourself, in your own sphere, make the changes, take the action.
That Zimbabwe’s economy can still emerge bruised but victorious regardless, is a dream that we should not allow to fade.
China survived the harsh effects of Covid-19 in the first quarter of last year and went on to register significant growth despite the fact that the disease had its nucleus in that country and many people died. A nation-wide lockdown was introduced for months as the government grappled with the disease but the Asian giant was back on its feet by the third quarter of the year.
It is now leading global efforts towards growth.
That it emerged from a 6,8 percent slump in the first quarter of last year to register a 4,9 percent growth between July and September shows that it can be done, even here in Zimbabwe, regardless of different circumstances and muscle.
There are strategies and measures that can still be employed in this country to ensure that the economy achieves positive growth, a much-needed turnaround from a negative 4,1 percent recorded in 2020.
Finance and Economic Development Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube projected a 7,4 percent growth in 2021, in line with the National Development Strategy 1 annual target of at least 5 percent GDP growth.
Although he announced these measures under slightly different circumstances, he was aware that Covid-19 would still be with us, but remained confident Zimbabwe had the wherewithal to circumvent its effects in one way or the other.
Even NDS1 was crafted in a Covid-19 environment, but this did not limit the imagination and belief of the crafters. President Mnangagwa has urged Zimbabweans to forge ahead and ensure Vision 2030 is achieved.
He never promised it would be a walk in the park, but he has the faith that this country has the capacity to do it.
Zimbabwe is blessed with resources and minds with the ability to pull off the 7,4 percent growth this year. But this can only happen if we all set our minds to it.
It is easier said than done of course, but that it can be done, is surely without question. This optimism is not unfounded but is premised on what we have seen the country achieve before even at a time when many had written us off.
The preface to the NDS1 document is instructive.
“It is also important to note that the formulation of the NDS1 has been under constantly changing global scenario, shaped by geo-political changes, technological changes, market segmentation and climatic shocks. Further the NDS1 was developed in the face of an unprecedented pandemic in the form of Covid-19.
“. . . we must adapt fast with these changing scenarios as the future pattern of this disease and its full impacts remain uncertain,” said Prof Ncube.
This illustrates that the economic strategy is almost Covid-19-proofed, in terms of the adaptation of strategies that should minimise the effects of the disease in the medium to long-term.
NDS1 national priorities that include economic growth and stability, food security and nutrition, climate resilience and natural resources management, housing delivery, ICT and digital economy, transport, infrastructure and utilities, image building and international engagement and reengagement, social protection and devolution remain achievable if we do not lose focus.
Of course NDS1’s successful implementation is premised on global recovery from Covid-19 and local economic revival largely resulting from increased performance in agriculture and firming international mineral prices.
Agriculture, billed to grow by 11,3 percent this year, already looks promising given the good rains we have received in the past few weeks and the Pfumvudza programme set to benefit more than 1,4 million households.
The Minister of Agriculture, Lands and Rural Resettlement Dr Anxious Masuka has already predicted that this year Zimbabwe will experience food self-sufficiency for the first time in years.
Agriculture’s good performance will impact the manufacturing sector which sources 65 percent of its raw materials from the sector. Most dams countrywide are either full or above 50 percent and this should boost irrigation initiatives on the ground, among other strategies.
Mining is upbeat given investments in major projects such as Karo Resources Platinum, GDI Platinum and Kuvimba Mining House’s gold revival project. Zimplats is undertaking expansion initiatives and the construction of a refinery. Thus the $12 billion target for the sector by 2023 looks on course, with high chances this may be surpassed.
Other sectors of the economy should weigh in with significant contributions to GDP. Tourism is the worst affected by Covid-19, but the sector remains resolute that it will pick up, at the slightest possible opportunity. It needs to think outside the box for survival.
The fact that a number of these sectors have been classified as essential services under current lockdown measures, ensures smoother production processes. In our Business Section we carry a story that at least 1 200 businesses are in operation have been given exemption letters.
However, the Government needs to consider appeals by the business sector that business hours be changed from 8am-3pm, to a more flexible schedule — 7am-5pm while the curfew hours have been proposed as 7pm to 5am against the current 6pm to 6am. These, in our view, are sound and progressive proposals that the Government may consider to allow business to function better.
Despite the doom and gloom brought about by Covid-19, our economic targets are achievable. In a nutshell, our currency has stabilised, the rains are good, the Africa Continental Free Trade area offers exciting prospects for exports and we have again a budget surplus. Monetary and fiscal policies are in sync, infrastructure projects are all around us and the corruption fight is at its highest since independence.
For this country, the glass is not half empty, it is half full.
In God I trust!
Twitter handle: @VictoriaRuzvid2; Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
