The Sunday Mail
Zimbabwe may not feel the effects of a national grain deficit as surplus maize in the Mashonaland regions, coupled with imports, will sustain the country until the next harvest, analysts say.
enough food till next year
The country experienced erratic rain patterns in the 2014-15 cropping season, resulting in a 40 percent decline in maize production.
As a result, a national maize deficit of 700 000 tonnes was recorded, thereby triggering fears that a majority of people and livestock will be affected by famine. The drought was also expected to trigger a price increase of grain and mealie-meal as demand was expected to outgrow supply.
However, farmers say they have 500 000 tonnes of maize available for sale, which when aided with imports, will go a long way in sustaining the country until the next harvest.
Grain merchants are also believed to be well on course to achieve a target of 600 000 tonnes of maize imports by the next harvest.
President of the Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union, Mr Wonder Chabikwa said that the country will not feel the effects of the drought.
“We think the country will be adequately supplied until the next harvest, in Mashonaland provinces most farmers have surplus grain and most of them have decided to sell their grain to private buyers rather than GMB because it is not paying on time,” said Mr Chabikwa,
“Coupled with imports, the country will be fine. Private players have a target to import about 600 000 tonnes of mealie-meal so I don’t think as a country we will feel the effects of drought that much.”
Retailers have also chipped in as they have flooded the market with cheap mealie-meal imports, especially from South Africa, a development which has however riled grain millers.
Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ) director, Ms Rosemary Siyachitema said surveys conducted in major retail shops show that mealie-meal prices are stable and are likely to remain so until the next harvests.
“The prices of mealie-meal have actually been stable, if you look at our food basket since January you will see that the prices have remained the same,” she said.
“The surveys that we did in the major retail shops show that the prices are within the expected range and we do not see an imminent increase of the prices or shortage of the commodity.”
According to the CCZ’s mid-August family basket, 20kg of roller meal was selling for an average of $9,39, a figure they consider to be fair. The stability of mealie-meal prices is understood to be a result of adequate supply of both maize and mealie-meal imports.
However, some consumers have complained that although maize and mealie-meal are available, their prices are too high. They base their argument on the fact that millers are buying maize at a very low price but charge exorbitant prices for mealie-meal. By the time of going to print, the Zimbabwe Grain Millers Association had not responded to questions sent to them regarding the cost incurred by millers during the production of mealie-meal.
In his mid-year fiscal policy review statement, Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Honourable Patrick Chinamasa said 16 670 tonnes of maize have already been imported so far.
“Already, the importation programme has begun with about 16 670 tons having been imported by Government. The imported maize will go a long way in supporting vulnerable households,” he said.
“In addition, Government has issued permits for the importation of 819 704 tons of maize by grain merchants.
“Against these permits, the private sector has so far imported about 101 716 tons of maize.”
Most farmers in the Mashonaland provinces prefer to sell their grain to private buyers rather than the Grain Marketing Board as the Board is taking long to make payments. However, most private buyers are offering between $200 and $250 for a tonne of maize, a price which disadvantages the farmers.
According to agronomist Mr Peter Gambara, farmers shun GMB because they want cash to settle other costs.
“Farmers would want to use their money to pay fees and buy inputs and this is not possible when payments take long. Most farmers are selling to other cash buyers offering around $220 per tonne. Farmers have current obligations to fulfill and selling to cash buyers will be a better option than to wait,” he said.
“If Treasury releases funds for grain payments early, farmers will deliver their grain to GMB.”
Experts say the farmers’ decision to hold on to their grain and only sell to private buyers compromises the strategic grain reserves.
Zimbabwe needs about 2,2 million tonnes of maize to satisfy its annual needs. The coming summer crop production is expected to improve due to an impending 20 percent cut in the cost of fertiliser.
