The Sunday Mail
Tau Tawengwa
Over the last few months, I’ve been reading various political opinions, views and commentaries on Zimbabwe’s 2018 harmonised elections.
There is one political statement that I found particularly interesting.
Sometime in May, MDC-T leader Mr Morgan Tsvangirai said he would only accept an opposition victory in 2018, and that he won’t accept defeat.
“There is no outcome which we will accept which is not victory for the opposition,” Mr Tsvangirai reportedly said.
This, in my view, is a loaded and ambiguous political statement, which, firstly, betrays Mr Tsvangirai’s intention to stay on as MDC-T leader beyond 2018, and secondly, betrays his pre-acceptance of a Zanu-PF victory next year.
The fact is that with six months left until 2018, Zanu-PF is in full-scale election mode, while the opposition is floundering.
It’s yet to be seen whether or not the opposition will find its voice by 2018.
Nevertheless, it seems clear to me that Zanu-PF is sure of a 2018 election victory for three fundamental reasons.
Political, ideological consciousness
With respect to political parties, political and ideological consciousness refers to the levels of awareness and knowledgebility around a party’s political and ideological positions among its core and potential supporters.
Political consciousness is raised through political rallies, political jingles, and mainstream and social media infusion, among other things.
Now, after losing the 2013 election, MDC-T did two things to its own detriment.
The first was to split into three distinct groups led by Messrs Tsvangirai, Tendai Biti and Elton Mangoma.
Those three 2014 splits did significant damage by demoralising would-be party supporters, and that damage is yet to be repaired.
The second mistake made by MDC-T after 2013 was its decision to boycott all by-elections under the “no reforms, no elections” mantra.
The reality is that MDC-T, as the major opposition party, has for four years lost the opportunity to convey its message to potential voters in ward and constituency by-elections.
Ultimately, MDC-T has for four years lost the opportunity to infuse its message — if it has one — into the psyche of the electorate, particularly the youth.
And while MDC-T was in hibernation, Zanu-PF continued with its political programmes day in, day out.
Events like the 21st February Movement (which is a Zanu-PF Youth League programme) are fundamentally meant for transmission of ideology.
I can safely say that Zanu-PF uses such events effectively.
Furthermore, while MDC-T was hibernating, the “independent” Press has been unrelenting in its coverage of the political goings-on within Zanu-PF.
Since 2013, we have all become too familiar with screaming headlines across media houses reporting mostly on Zanu-PF.
While the intention of those reports may have been to portray Zanu-PF as divided, the contrary has occurred.
More often than not, in politics, there is no such thing as bad publicity. The recent snap election in the United Kingdom displays this.
Despite the vilification of Jeremy Corbyn prior to the polls, he performed much better than his critics anticipated. Donald Trump pulled a similar surprise.
Zanu-PF will do the same.
Ultimately, as 2018 beckons, Zanu-PF is more on the hearts, minds and lips of the electorate than MDC-T.
Command Agriculture
Several things have been said about Command Agriculture, both good and bad.
Nevertheless, what’s clear is that in 2017, agriculture remains one of the major contributors to Zimbabwe’s GDP.
A report by the African Development Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the United Nations Development Programme states that Zimbabwe’s GDP growth is projected to increase by 1,3 percent in 2017 – spurred mainly by agriculture.
While some may argue that a growth rate of 1,3 percent is nominal, still, it must be acknowledged that Command Agriculture was a timely and strategic intervention on the part of Government, especially when one considers that most commercial farmers were unable to individually purchase inputs owing to the cash shortages at the end of 2016.
What’s clear is that Command Agriculture is over-subscribed. The popularity of the programme is likely to persist when the 2017/18 season begins.
As a result, one could argue, the predominance of the 300 000 families that make the resettled Zimbabwean farming community will lean towards Zanu-PF come 2018.
Youth Vote
Statistics show that about 59 percent of Zimbabwe’s population is below 40-years-old. This demographic is commonly referred to as “the youth”.
Firstly, I’ve argued before and I’ll argue again here that the electorate is not homogeneous.
It consists of various sub-groups, including women, urban voters, rural voters, committed voters, apathetic voters, etcetera.
While I’ve heard opposition politicians saying they want to mobilise 800 000 urban “youth” voters to vote for them in 2018, I must emphasise that that’s a mammoth task, to say the least.
It is unlikely to happen for two reasons. Firstly, there is not enough time for the opposition to conscientise 800 000 youths to vote in its favour.
Had MDC-T not voluntarily hibernated over the past four years, perhaps by now it would have been achievable.
However, because they decided to take the “no reforms, no elections” route, they lost the opportunity to energise, ideologise and conscientise the youthful constituency.
As it stands, Zanu-PF has the most vibrant youth movement in the country. The second reason why the youth will not come out in their numbers (particularly in Harare) in the 2018 elections is substance abuse.
I’ve written before, and I’ll argue again here that over the last few years, Zimbabwe’s urban youths have developed a drug problem.
This has resulted in political apathy and general dysfunction of youth in our society.
Having said that, I must highlight to our politicians that this phenomenon of substance abuse is serious as it is a precursor to violence and other crime.
If left unattended, Zimbabwe will soon find itself in the position other countries: infiltrated by drug cartels, with gang violence a daily occurrence.
As a result, I hope to see anti-youth substance abuse in 2018 election manifestos.
Tau Tawengwa is a doctoral candidate. He wrote this article for The Sunday Mail
