Wake up, open your eyes and smell the coffee

WE welcome a brand new month of May, and may the avalanche of good news and good tidings continue.

We are now a month away from mid-year and about 27 months — two years and three months — from the next elections.

Quite clearly, we still have a long way to go, but with the ongoing politicking from some political parties, you would think elections are nigh.

Do not be distracted: This is not the time for the beastly business of bare-knuckled politics yet.

Now is the time to work.

We still have an economy to recover, livelihoods to rebuild and restore, and a country to prosper.

The short and silly season of politics will definitely come.

Ecclesiastes 3:1-8 tells us: “To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted; a time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up; a time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance; a time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing; a time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away; a time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak. A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.”

For those who cannot read the times, this is a time to plant, heal, build, laugh, dance, gather stones, embrace and keep silent.

Most importantly, it is a time to love and a time of peace.

But please do not interrupt those hyper-political parties as they dither and wither.

And as they continue with their ill-fated schemes — the latest of which is another evanescent and ill-conceived hashtag political mobilisation campaign premised on the assumption that most, if not all, young and unregistered voters are disciples of their political formations — Bishop Lazi would like to remind them what boxing phenom Mike Tyson once said: “Everybody has a plan until they are punched in the face.”

They wont see it coming.

Thanksgiving

Well, the good news continues rolling in.

It now turns out our maize haul for the 2020/2021 cropping season will top 2,7 million tonnes, which is the most grain we have produced since 1984.

It dwarfs the 2,2 million tonnes harvested in 2017, courtesy of Command Agriculture, and is the highest output since the land reform programme at the turn of the millennium.

But numbers and statistics can be misleading.

For the layman, it simply means the country has produced 500 000 tonnes more than it needs — enough to restock its strategic grain reserves.

Although this year’s soyabean production at 71 000 tonnes is still markedly lower than the 200 000 tonnes the country needs for food, feed and industry, it is the highest in the past seven years.

But shortages of oilseeds are likely to be tempered by the 140 percent increase in groundnut output to almost 210 000 tonnes.

To cut a long story short, Zimbabwe will spend relatively less on food imports and earn more from exports of cash crops.

Only last week, we were told that inflation continues to nosedive, and might drop to double-digit levels soon.

It has to be considered that were it not for the incessant rains that affected the production and quality of vegetables, the annual inflation rate would have been significantly lower than the 194 percent recorded in April.

In modern times, no one knows the deleterious impact of hyperinflation more than ordinary Zimbabweans, who saw their savings and pensions evaporate to nothingness before 2009.

As a result, they are more likely to appreciate tamed inflation, and the stability it comes with, more than anyone else.

These are things that matter most in people’s lives — putting food on the table and enjoying a modicum of stability that allows them to plan, invest and save.

But not only will households have enough food to eat, they are likely to earn more through offloading the surplus to the national granary, the Grain Marketing Board.

At an average price of $32 000 per tonne (or US$380 per tonne) for maize, the country will be paying local farmers considerably more money than it was paying foreign farmers for imported grain.

The impact on the economy would be immense.

Tailwinds

But this recovery in agriculture, which will likely spur consumer spending and business activity, will add impetus to the recovery that was already taking root as a result of the ongoing massive infrastructure projects.

You see, the secret to stimulating growth during troubled times is to spend money on infrastructure projects in order to jumpstart economic activities that are critical for growth.

When China was faced with a sharp economic downturn in 2008, after the contagion effect of a financial crisis that originated in the US a year earlier and threatened the world with a recession, it splashed more than US$587 billion to construct low-income houses, new railways, subways, airports and rebuild communities.

It unsurprisingly rebounded by 8,7 percent in 2009 and 10,4 percent in 2010, becoming the first major economy to recover from the crisis, in the same way it is also experiencing a V-shaped (marked) recovery from the coronavirus.

The US similarly splurged US$152 billion for the same purpose.

Funnelling money to infrastructure projects is a sure way to drive economic activity as it drives demand for soils, aggregates (from rocks), lime, asphalt and bitumen, including concrete.

Money for roadworks, for example, even trickles down to support roadside activities such as vending in areas where itinerant workers would be operating.

As we celebrate Workers Day, has anyone cared to look at the number of people that have been absorbed in both the public and private sector due to the expansion of the economy, from the massive recruitment of teachers, nurses, police, army, airforce, agricultural extension workers, etcetera?

And do you also think it was fortuitous for ED to preside over the commissioning of a new US$2,8 million dry mortar plant at Lafarge last week? Kikikiki.

Demand for cement is now ginormous as construction projects on roads, dams, clinics, hospitals and schools gain momentum.

The mistake that Uncle Bob (Cde Robert Mugabe) made — May His Soul Rest In Peace — was to channel disproportionately more resources to salaries, among other recurrent expenditures, rather than to capital projects, which meant the economy progressively floundered and declined.

Contrary to the negative spin by political parties that are perennially trapped in election mode, the nascent signs of recovery after three years of incredibly hard work are now apparent.

As Bishop Lazi told you at the beginning of April, for local and international businesses, strong scepticism is beginning to give way to strong optimism.

You might have seen the recent research report by South African-based Coronation Fund Managers — compiled by Floris Steenkamp — which observed that probably “the international investment community is completely unaware that management teams in Zimbabwe are the most upbeat they have been in years”.

Steenkamp added: “For the first time in years, companies in Zimbabwe are telling us that they are confident enough to start investing and expand capacity . . .

“What is particularly positive is that agricultural output is not only improving as a result of better rainfall, but also because of better planning. Similarly, the increase in metal exports is not just because of higher prices, but is also due to policy changes that encourage investments in the mining sector.”

And get this: “Over the past year, foreign investors found it much easier to repatriate funds from Zimbabwe than from Nigeria.”

By any measure, Coronation Fund Managers are not a Mickey Mouse outfit.

The Cape Town-based company manages funds worth R629 billion or US$43 billion.

International companies and local businesses seem to know more about what is happening in the economy than the ordinary person in the streets.

Strive Masiyiwa was almost crucified by sceptics when he told business television channel CNBC in October 2018 that the transition that took place in November 2017 was “real”.

Do you still remember his exact words?

“I believe President Mnangagwa is sincere in the things he wants to do. It is going to be extremely challenging. Everybody knows that, anyone who understands economics knows it going to be tough going. I think Zimbabwe needs to be given a chance . . . We gotta stop the politicking and focus on rebuilding this country . . . I think, for instance, that the sanctions should be removed; there is no justification for them anymore . . . and now we are almost 20 years into the sanctions.

“You cannot have one country operating with its hands tied behind its back,” he said then.

Surely, perennial politicking will not take us anywhere.

Between the contested realities and narratives in Zimbabwe, business sentiment should be accurate and paramount.

If we could achieve these milestones in three years buffeted by sanctions, two successive drought seasons, Cyclone Idai and a global health crisis, just imagine what can be achieved in the next two years leading up 2023 when economic conditions are especially propitious.

Wake up, open your eyes and smell the coffee.

Bishop out!