The Sunday Mail
Zimbabwe will from now onwards receive rain later than usual and experience longer mid-season dry spells due to climate change.
However, the amount of rainfall is not expected to decrease in the short to medium term.
Forecasts by the Metereological Services Department show that the six-month rain season will begin in November.
In normal seasons, most parts of the country received rains between October and March.
Principal meteorologist Mrs Linia Mashawi Gopo told The Sunday Mail that rainfall distribution and frequency have also changed.
She said all findings will be verified in 2015.
“The rainfall pattern is showing some changes and these include delayed onset of rains in most parts of the country. Officially, the season ends in March, but there are certain areas which are receiving rainfall even up to April and this is showing late cessation of rainfall in (these) areas, though in some (other areas) there is also early cessation of rains.
“The total rainfall for different parts of the country has not changed much. What has changed is the distribution and the increase in the frequency and length of dry spells.”
University of Zimbabwe climatologist and researcher Professor Amon Murwira said there were indications of shifting seasons and attributed the phenomenon to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
“We are basing (this position) on observations of the 1960s and we are now in the 21st century. So, there is a possibility that climate has changed.
“We used to know that the rain season starts in early October and ends in March, but it is now uncertain.
“Research in the 1950s showed that the earth temperature due to industrialisation levels has caused excessive deposition of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
“There is excessive carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Back then, the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million, but is now about 340ppm.”
Climate change is a variation in weather pattern distribution over a sustained period.
Scientists believe it is a result of massive air pollution.
In 2013, the United Nations’ Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that scientists were “95 percent sure” human activity is causing climate change.
While the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 obliges all signatory states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, bickering over apportioning global mitigatory measures between developing and developed countries is stalling progress.
Developing nations blame industrialised economies for large-scale pollution and want them to fund most anti-pollution programmes, but developed countries are against this proposal.
In southern Africa, a series of bizarre weather conditions associated with climate change have decimated Malawi’s agriculture with farming hubs battling to match previous output.
Namibia also suffered one of its worst droughts last year which halved food production.
In addition, Mozambique has faced constant threats of flooding and high temperatures.
Despite indications of shifting rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe, forecasts show that Natural Region 1 will receive normal rainfall througout the 2014/15 season.
Regions 2 and 3 will likely receive normal rainfall between October and December, while below-normal rains have been forecast for late January until March.
Last year, the country received normal-to-above-normal rainfall and this helped increase maize production from 785 000 tonnes to 1, 4 million tonnes.
There was, however, flooding in Tokwe Mukosi, Masvingo, and heavy rains destroyed property in other areas.
