The Sunday Mail
Vision 2030
Allen Choruma
1 National Priorities
The objective of the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) macroeconomic framework is to sustain an average annual economic growth rate of 5 percent and above driven by our key economic sectors namely: agriculture, mining, tourism and manufacturing.
NDS1 is running under the theme: “Towards a prosperous and empowered upper middle-income society by 2030.”
The road map towards Vision 2030 will be realised through the Transitional Stabilisation Plan (TSP) October 2018 to 31 December, 2020, National Development Strategy 1 (2021-2025) and National Development Strategy 2 (2026-2030).
The ultimate goal for Vision 2030 is to create a prosperous and empowered upper middle income society with an average per capita income of US $3,207 by 2030 (2021: $1,842).
In the previous article we looked at NDS 1 macroeconomic objectives for the five years (2021-2025). In this article we will look at the NDS1 national priorities.
Fact file: Zimbabwe
Many of us in Zimbabwe are not aware of our country’s fact file, that is to say our land area, population, key economic statistics and so on.
The Zimbabwe fact file summary is as follows:
Total Area: 390,580 km2.
Land Area: 386,670 km2.
Water: 3,910 km2.
Population: 14, 862 million.
Boarder Countries and length: Botswana 813km, Mozambique 1,231km, Zambia 797km, South Africa 225km.
Geographic coordinates: latitude- 19, 015438, longitude-29, 154857.
Natural resources; diamonds, gold, asbestos, platinum group metals, chromium ore, lithium, vanadium, iron ore, nickel, coal, tin, copper.
Gross Domestic Product: US $ nominal — ($20,563 billion, 2020), (US $21,441 billion, 2019), (World Bank).
GDP growth (last 3 years): 3, 5 percent (2018), -6 percent (2019), -4, 1 percent (2020) and 5 percent (2021).
GNI per capita: $1,156 (2020), $1,835 (2021).
Adult literacy rate: 90 percent (average).
Annual inflation: 352 percent (December, 2020), month on moth 5 percent (December, 2020).
ZIMRA Revenue collection 2019: ZW $23, 19 billion
Key Revenue sources: Tax on income and profits — 35 percent, Customs duties-8 percent, Excise duties-14 percent, VAT — 25 percent, tax on gross revenue — 6 percent, tax on financial transactions — 9 percent.
Public Debt: External US$8,2 billion (2020), Domestic ($12,5 billion (2020).
An overview of the NDS1 national priorities is given below.
1. Economic growth and stability
The objective of NDS1 is to sustain a positive annual economic growth averaging 5 percent per annum. This growth will be driven by the key economic sectors namely, agriculture, mining, tourism and manufacturing. Growth in the service sector (financial, insurance, commerce and e-commerce) is also expected to increase, especially after Covid-19 and contribute significantly to economic growth and stability.
The Transitional Stabilisation Plan (TSP) brought about stability to key macroeconomic fundamentals such as a stable exchange rate, reduction in inflation (from 837 percent in July 2020 to 348 percent, December, 2020) and price stability.
Although worrisome inflationary trends were observed in January, due to a hike in prices for basic food stuffs, fuel, public services such as tollgates and other Government service fees, it is expected that month on month inflation will go down from April 2021.
The annual inflation rose from 348 percent in December, 2020 to 362 percent in January, 2021, (month-on-month inflation rose from an average four percent in December, 2020, to 5 percent in January, 2021).
The good rainy season we are currently experiencing is expected to result in good agricultural production and ease inflationary pressures owing to availability of basic food commodities on the domestic market, without need for importation.
2. Food and Nutrition Security
NDS1 seeks to improve Zimbabwe’s food self-sufficiency status, since the country’s economic activities are largely driven by agriculture. Productivity on farms is a priority for the Government and already there is talk from the Government that non-productive farms, allocated under the Land Reform Programme will be repossessed.
The main objective of NDS1 is to increase food self-sufficiency from the current level of 45 percent to 100 percent and reduce food insecurity from the 2020 peak of 59 percent to less than 10 percent by 2025.
3. Value chains and structural transformation
During the NDS1 period (2021-2025) the objective is to rebalance the economy through:
Improving the contribution of the secondary sector to GDP from the current 11,7 percent to 15 percent of GDP by 2025, and
Increasing the contribution of value added exports from nine percent in 2020 to 20 percent by 2025.
Value addition or beneficiation of the country’s mineral and agricultural commodities has been talked about in the past but nothing much has happened on the ground.
Zimbabwe therefore remains an exporter of low value primary commodities which are prone to price volatility on global markets.
NDS1 seeks to reverse this by ensuring that the country starts to beneficiate its commodities locally as a way of driving the country’s industrialisation agenda and creation of manufacturing industries at home, and hence jobs for the country’s youthful population.
Beneficiation or value addition is critical for Zimbabwe if the industrialisation agenda under Vision 2030 is to be realised.
We should start to produce and export yoghurt and cheese from milk products, juice from fruits, chocolates from cocoa, steel and steel products from ferrochrome and iron ore, jewellery from diamonds, fertilisers from phosphate and so on.
Our mining and mining development policies, for example, should shift radically from the colonial model, and be aligned with NDS1 strategic objectives. NDS1 seeks to reposition the country’s mining from primary extraction of commodities to setting up of mineral processing plants and downstream manufacturing industries.
We should start seeing visible projects on the ground that speak to beneficiation.
Without a robust beneficiation and value addition programme, Zimbabwe will continue to lurch from crisis to crisis as a producer of low value commodities and exporter of jobs abroad, that is to say, to countries with manufacturing industries capable of processing our primary commodities and producing high-end finished products, which will be resold to us, unfortunately, at a higher premium.
4. Infrastructure and utilities
During NDS1, efficient infrastructure development will be a key enabler to our economic growth strategies. Without reliable, efficient, affordable and dependable infrastructure, provided by our public entities, our key sectors such as agriculture, mining, tourism, manufacturing and service sectors will continue to limp instead of running.
The current state of our infrastructure is deplorable and needs improvement in line with NDS1.
We need to see remarkable investments and improvement in key infrastructure areas such as energy, water and sanitisation, roads and rail, aviation, telecommunications, local authority services, health and education.
If we look at transport, for example, the state of our national roads and toll gates needs improvement to ensure smooth flow of traffic.
The National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) is a strategic public entity that needs to be revived and supported by the Government, since it’s a capital intensive industry, to ensure that we have a reliable and cost effective transportation mode.
The multitude of haulage trucks we see on our roads is a sign that our rail system is not working efficiently. Haulage trucks are not as cost effective as the rail network.
Haulage trucks are expensive to run and maintain and they also damage roads, contribute significantly to road accidents and pollution to the environment.
Currently we see thousands of trucks on the roads, when all the loads could be hauled through the rail network.
We see thousands of fuel tankers on the roads, yet the fuel could be moved through the Beira to Mabvuku pipeline.
The congestion at toll gates caused by the high number of haulage trucks is becoming unbearable and can be avoided if we develop and support the NRZ.
5. Other national priority programmes
Other national priority programmes under NDS1 are as follows:
Digital economy.
Housing delivery.
Governance.
Social protection.
Image building, international engagement and re-engagement.
Environmental protection, climate resilience and natural resource management.
Youth, Sport and Culture.
Health and well-being.
Human Capital Development.
Devolution.
(Acknowledgement: source — Ministry of Finance and Economic Development reports).
The series of articles on NDS1 will continue in future articles.
Allen Choruma writes in his personal capacity and be contacted on email: [email protected]
