The Sunday Mail
Ongoing attacks by a terrorist organisation linked to ISIS in Cabo Delgado, the northern province of Mozambique, has left behind a trail of destruction which could have a negative impact on the SADC region if left unchecked.
Cabo Delgado is made up of mostly sleepy, small villages populated by subsistence farmers who also fish its coastline.
However, most of the villages are now deserted due to the attacks.
This year, more than 600 people were reportedly killed, while this month has seen 17 attacks from the terrorist group, the most recent occurring last week.
While not much is known about the group, it is alleged the Islamic State (ISIS) group has claimed responsibility for 26 attacks.
It has left behind a trail of beheaded, disfigured and dismembered bodies of men, women and children.
The group’s funding, its origins, mandate and even its name are unknown.
Jasmine Opperman, the Africa associate of Islamic theology on counterterrorism, said there were between seven and 10 cells operating in Cabo Delgado.
“There are indicators of Islamic extremism involved in some of these cell structures,” she said. “We are sitting with a serious, serious problem.”
Opperman said Islamic extremists, and specifically the Islamic State Central African Province, has taken note of the opportunity.
She adds that the Islamic State does not need a well-run organisation to penetrate new territories, but only a proxy.
Complicating the situation further is the arrival of Russian Wagner troops to fight Islamist militants in Mozambique.
Johann Smith, an independent political and security risk analyst, says the Wagner troops had been ill-prepared for the conditions in Mozambique upon their arrival.
It was not only the scorching temperatures, but the hi-tech equipment that has proven to be ineffective.
Wagner has since withdrawn to Nacala to re-plan and retrain. Smith added that since the Russians’ arrival, ISIS immediately reinforced the insurgents in Mozambique.
“The presence of Wagner created an exponential increase in incidents, it was as if someone had kicked the hornet’s nest,” said Smith.
Opperman corroborates Smith saying “the sophistication and the brazenness of the attacks are evolving”.
“They have access to intelligence, access to knowledge on where the deployments are when they are at their most vulnerable, they have access to FADM uniforms, they have seized weapons that Wagner has given to the FADM — sophisticated weapons — which means their sophistication is escalating day by day,” she said.
“The brutality against the civilians is an answer I am still looking for, I am not sure what their motive behind that is, it is gruesome.”
Wagner’s arrival only intensified their presence — as a Russian entity, they were also an enemy of the Islamic State, Opperman said.
As the government has no capacity, manpower, skills or equipment to deal with the problem, the insurgency is moving more inland. — News24/ Reporter.
“This is not a Mozambican problem, it’s a regional one. After the first attack, the SADC Security Organ should have met to decide how they were going to deal with the problem. Up to now, the issue has not featured on the agenda during subsequent meetings,” said Smith.
Opperman said while the situation was not a direct threat to other SADC countries yet, weak borders pose a problem.
“We must keep a sober mind. Cabo Delgado – its dynamics, its historical context, what is present in that area – we don’t find similar situations in South Africa,” said Opperman.
“Border control between SA and Mozambique is virtually non-existent because of corruption and the ease of moving between borders means you have foreign elements that can move in and out as they wish.
“SA cannot say ‘this is a Mozambican problem, we are distancing ourselves’, we are simply too close.”
She said as the insurgency evolves and the Islamist’s indicators increase, SADC’s vulnerability to exposure to Islamist extremism must not be underestimated. – News24/ Reporter
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