The Sunday Mail
Peter Gambara
THE 2023/2024 summer cropping season was characterised by a late start of the rains, long dry spells and intermittent rains, as well as a premature end to the rains.
This was caused by the El Niño effect.
Last year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that Zimbabwe would be among the several countries that would experience an intense El Niño weather phenomenon between October 2023 and March 2024.
This coincides with our rainy season.
Most farmers, therefore, planted late, mostly in December, and by the time the rains ended, most of their crops were far from maturity.
As a result, most will harvest very little grain or nothing at all.
But Zimbabwe can mitigate such a phenomenon.
Every bad experience should teach us a lesson or two so that in future we will be better prepared.
What causes the El Niño effect?
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that is caused by warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Central Pacific Ocean.
It occurs on average between two- to seven-year intervals.
The last El Niño we experienced was during the 2015/2016 season (exactly seven years ago).
El Niño was first discovered by fishermen off the coast of Peru, as they experienced unusually warm waters.
The fishermen then called it El Niño to mean “the little boy” in their Spanish language.
The El Niño effect usually lasts between six and 12 months.
So far, there is no definite relationship between the El Niño phenomenon and global warming, which is causing climate change.
However, recent studies point to sea surface temperature extremes, which have intensified by 10 percent in recent times, as having been driven by El Niño, which suggests the effects of global warming.
What are the effects of El Niño?
In our case, an El Niño causes delayed commencement of the rainy season, prolonged dry spells, lower total seasonal rainfall and an early cut off of the rains.
While we generally expect our summer season to kick off around November, this time, the rains did not arrive until mid-December.
Farmers, therefore, could not plant as they waited for the first effective rains.
Most farmers in Zimbabwe grow maize, which is a staple crop. The shortest maize varieties take a minimum of 120 days to reach physiological maturity.
However, if a farmer planted, say, in mid-December, that crop would only reach maturity in April this year, and yet the rains had stopped by the end of January.
Most areas barely received any rains in February, and any rains that fell in March came too late, as most crops had already gone beyond permanent wilting point, a point where any water would not be able to rescue the crop.
Mitigation
Mitigating simply means lessening the effect of this phenomenon, either today or in future.
The first mitigatory measure that should have been adopted is information dissemination.
Farmers should get accurate, people-centred and user-friendly information about the possibility of a drought season caused by such phenomena as El Niño.
As much as possible, such information should be disseminated in all local languages so that it reaches as many farmers as possible.
Radio and TV stations, as well as newspapers, especially those in local languages, should be tasked with disseminating this information to farmers once it becomes available.
Government extension agents should themselves be adequately equipped with such information so that they can also pass it on to farmers.
The second mitigatory measure is preparation.
Once a farmer is made aware of the possibility of experiencing a severe drought season caused by an El Niño effect, they should then take measures to minimise their exposure.
Farmers should be encouraged to prefer more local crop varieties to exotic crops like maize and soya beans.
Sorghum and millet will withstand the effects of a drought season better than maize and soya beans.
Farmers should also be encouraged to go for short-season crop varieties.
In a normal season, farmers want to maximise yields by going for the late-maturing varieties that have higher yield potential.
However, in the event of a drought, these varieties also suffer the worst and fail to reach maturity.
Unfortunately, most seed houses continue to sell all varieties, including the long-season varieties, without warning farmers of the dangers.
In most cases, farmers will discover this when it is too late.
Some seed houses indicated this year that they had developed drought-tolerant varieties and such information ought to be made available to farmers on time so that they make the right decisions.
The best mitigatory measure one can adopt relates to having an irrigation scheme in place to supplement the rains.
While most smallholder farmers do not have access to a lot of water, they should also strive to develop small irrigation schemes near their water sources, mostly in their gardens.
A smallholder farmer who irrigates a small plot in a garden is likely to harvest enough, at least to last his family until the next harvest.
Most large-scale commercial farmers have better access to water in dams and rivers. Some have even drilled boreholes on their farms.
They, therefore, have the option to develop irrigation schemes to water their crops should the rains disappear.
However, most commercial farmers mourn about the lack of resources to instal irrigation facilities.
The initial cost of installing an efficient modern irrigation facility like a centre pivot, for example, can be prohibitive.
On average, it costs US$2 500 per hectare to install a centre pivot and a 20-hectare plot will require at least US$50 000, resources which most farmers do not have.
Farmers also mourn about the lack of credit facilities to develop or install equipment like centre pivots.
On commercial farms, it is generally perceived that when people see a centre pivot going up, it is associated with a “white farmer having moved on to lease that farm”.
The Government should, therefore, make efforts to provide a fund that farmers can access to install centre pivots.
Such modern and high-tech equipment should be readily available on the farms.
Centre pivots distribute water more uniformly, thereby ensuring an even crop.
Farmers who use centre pivots generally achieve higher crop yields compared to those still using the traditional lateral move systems.
Centre pivots are also more flexible, reduce labour costs considerably and save time.
While lateral move systems have to be constantly moved after a cycle, a centre pivot is programmed to shift positions automatically when the cycle needs to be changed.
The emphasis now should be assisting those farmers with the capacity to irrigate winter crops to do so.
The growing of winter maize will definitely bring some additional stocks to the strategic grain reserve (SGR).
The Government has already instructed millers to start importing maize that is mainly targeted at the urban dweller, who has the means to buy mealie meal from a supermarket.
The Government should be more worried with the vulnerable households in communal areas that might not have the means to buy grains.
These will be given grain from the SGR.
The Government recently gave assurances that the country still has enough grain stocks in reserve to last us until the next harvest.
Preliminary indications from the second-round crop and livestock survey, conducted by the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, are that the country should harvest approximately 700 000 tonnes of maize this year.
This should keep us going while we import and augment the SGR through winter production.
Zimbabweans should, therefore, not engage in panic buying of grain.
Besides, the millennials generation has since shifted its starch demands to alternative foods like rice and pasta.
Recent studies have found that this demographic seeks more adventure on their food choices and would not likely consume sadza (pap) almost every day.
Rice and pasta are also easier to prepare, always readily available in shops and can be easily stored from one meal to the next.
Livestock farmers also face challenges associated with a drought season like the one we have just experienced.
Since the rains stopped, most pastures had not been fully developed.
The bulk was simply not there. It will be extremely difficult for most livestock, especially cattle, to get adequate bulk to last until the next season.
The solution, in some cases, might be to cull the numbers so as to reduce the resources that will be required to buy supplementary feed for the remaining herd.
While the country has just gone through an El Niño-induced drought that led to most crops failing to reach maturity, there are enough stocks at the Grain Marketing Board’s SGR and the next harvests are only a month away.
The Government has also recently indicated that it will proceed to capacitate those farmers with the ability to irrigate winter crops to do so.
Grain millers have also since been instructed to start importing grain.
*Peter Gambara is an agricultural economist and consultant based in Harare.
