The Sunday Mail
Health Talk with Everisto Mapfidze
The Covid-19 disease outbreak is set to cost the global economy more than US$1 trillion in lost output if it turns a pandemic, according to Standard and Poor’s.
Oxford Economics expects China’s GDP growth to fall from 6 percent last year to 5,4 percent in 2020 due to spread of the virus.
Many scientists agree that pandemic describes widespread occurrence of a disease, in excess of what might normally be expected in a geographical region.
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), “a pandemic is a new disease that has spread globally”.
Outbreaks of diseases across borders are properly defined as pandemic, especially smallpox, which throughout history has killed between 300 and 500 million people in its 12 000-year existence.
WHO says coronavirus has “pandemic potential” but it is not yet a pandemic.
“We should not be too eager to declare a pandemic without a careful and clear minded analysis of facts,” advised WHO director-general, Dr Tedros Adhanom.
However, Professor Jimmy Whitworth of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the BBC that many people would consider the current situation a pandemic as the transmission was ongoing in multiple regions of the world.
The definition of pandemic can be seen to be relative and contextual.
But, economic and social impact of disease outbreaks have a ubiquitous “chilling effect”.
Coronavirus disease, caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), began in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019.
It has spread throughout China, and to 64 other countries.
As of Thursday March 5, 2020, there were more than 95 000 reported cases worldwide.
In Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Cameroon, Nigeria, South Africa and Senegal have since reported Covid-19 positive cases. South Africa is the first country in Southern Africa to confirm a case of coronavirus.
There have been more than 3 000 associated deaths globally.
Zimbabwe is yet to confirm any case. A suspected case of Covid-19 virus has since tested negative.
The Minister of Health and Child Care, Dr Obadiah Moyo, has repeatedly assured about Zimbabwe’s preparedness to contain coronavirus.
Outbreaks are a burden that all and sundry have to bear as they affect the global economy.
Human behaviour nearly always contribute to such spread.
Pandemics are a great threat to public health security and the disruption of social and economic developments of countries.
The first recorded pandemic, the Athenian Plague, happened during the Peloponnesian War – a battle between two most powerful city states in ancient Greece – Athens and Sparta – from 431 to 405 BC.
The war marked a significant power shift in ancient Greece, favouring Sparta.
To date, over 314,8 million people have since succumbed to 10 fatal pandemics. Pandemics can cause significant, widespread increases in morbidity and mortality.
HIV/Aids, influenza, cholera, plague and the Black Death outbreaks have been specifically analysed as the most lethal pandemics of all time.
HIV/Aids: First identified in Democratic Republic Congo in 1976, it has killed more than 36 million people.
The vast majority of these are in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 5 percent of the population is infected.
Development of new treatments has made HIV far more manageable, and many of those infected go on to lead productive lives.
The annual global deaths from HIV/Aids dropped from 2,2million to 1,6million between 2005 and 2012.
According to a new study, “a staggering $562,6 billion was spent on overall care, treatment and prevention between 2000 and 2015”.
Influenza (1918-1920) tore across the globe, infecting over a third of the world’s population. Between and 25 and 30 million lives were lost.
Of the 500 million people infected in the 1918 pandemic, the mortality rate was estimated between 10 and 20 percent, with up to 25 million deaths in the first 25 weeks alone.
What separated the 1918 pandemic from other influenza outbreaks were the victims. Influenza had always previously only killed juveniles and the elderly or already weakened patients.
It had begun striking down healthy young adults, while leaving children and those with weaker immune systems still alive.
The Third Cholera Pandemic (1852-1860) is considered the most deadly of the seven cholera pandemics. The pandemic originated in India, spreading from the Ganges River Delta before tearing through Asia, Europe, North America and Africa.
In Russia, more than one million people died of cholera. 10 000 lives were lost in London alone, with 23 000 deaths for all of Great Britain.
British Physician John Snow tracked cases of cholera and eventually succeeded in identifying contaminated water as the means of transmission of the disease.
The Black Death (1346-1353): Outbreak of the plague ravaged Europe, Africa, and Asia, with an estimated death toll between 75 and 200 million people.
Thought to have originated in Asia, the plague likely jumped continents via the fleas living on the rats that so frequently lived aboard merchant ships.
Plague of Justinian (541-542) is thought to have killed perhaps half the population of Europe. The outbreak of the bubonic plague killed up to 25 million people in its year-long reign of terror.
Generally regarded as the first recorded bubonic plague, it devastated the city of Constantinople where it killed an estimated 5 000 people per day and eventually resulting in the deaths of 40% of the city’s population.
Since the economic and social impact of a pandemic can be ignored at one’s peril. Governments should provide rigorous, efficient and effective health systems to minimise human fatalities and economic costs.
In America, it costs an average of $3 000 to treat coronavirus. The US congress has voted for a US$8,3bn emergency fund to fight the coronavirus.
Public health awareness programs and promoting health-seeking behaviours are critical in minimising the spread of the disease.
“Countries invest heavily in protecting their people from terrorist attacks, but not against the attack of viruses, which could be far more deadly and far more damaging economically and socially,” wrote the WHO director- general.
Will coronavirus (Covid-19) become another pandemic? Only time will tell.
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