The Sunday Mail
THE sobering statistics on the continent’s power-generating capacity in the African Progress Report on June 5, if accurate, are an indictment on oil the levers of economic growth.
How on Earth can a continent called home by more than one billion people, a continent that in the main enjoys many hours of sunshine relative to other continents manage, to produce electric power that is equivalent to one European country – Spain, home to 47 million people?
Spain is a developed country, but it is no global economic powerhouse. But it produces as much electricity as the whole of Africa!
Let’s have some perspective: it is estimated that of the total amount of electricity produced in Africa – about 90 gigawatts – half of that is generated in South Africa. (One GW is equivalent to one billion watts or 1 000MW.)
It’s sad. Although South Africa is smarting from bouts of power rationing, experts suggest that this load shedding is more a function of an economy that has outpacedthe deployment of infrastructure to support such growth spurts than of the country declining.
The Africa Progress Report, the flagship publication of a grouping of 10 so-called distinguished individuals from the continent’s public and private sectors, is revealing.
It is estimated that the average Tanzanian will take more than eight years to use the same amount of electricity that a single American will consume in a month.
It’s really sad. In Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy, 93 million of its 174 million people literally live in the dark. The West African country is currently generating about 5 500MW, against estimated demand of 160 000MW.
Zimbabweans are all-too-familiar with the devastating and traumatic consequences of power outages, especially with the brutal and ruthless load-shedding schedule that currently exists. By last week, the country was producing 1 400MW against peak demand of 2 200MW.
For a country that hasn’t had any meaningful investments in energy, particularly in the past 15 years in which the country has been under illegal sanctions from the United States and the European Union, this is a feat of sorts.
But as gloomy as these statistics might seem, statistics of the continent’s inherent potential inasfar as power generation is concerned are encouraging. In fact, they reinforce predictions that Africa is the next global economic growth zone. The challenge is for countries to translate this potential into tangible and meaningful results. The APR notes that the potential electricity that can be generated from solar energy is 10 terawatts (one trillion watts).
Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa enjoy more than 300 days of sunlight and irradiance. Comparatively, while Germany now has a thriving solar industry, most countries on the continent have twice the irradiance in Europe’s largest economy. Estimates suggest that Africa’s prospective solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity supply by 2030 could range from 15GW to 62GW.
Zimbabwe is conscious of the benefits that can be derived from solar and is actively pursuing this route. Spelling out the legislative agenda for the Eighth Parliament of Zimbabwe on September 17, 2013, President Mugabe said the country would step up exploitation of solar.
Happily, there are various initiatives that are being pursued by the Rural Electrification Agency, a subsidiary of the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority. What is disturbing, though, is the red tape and inefficiencies that seem to delay rolling out solar projects. Experts say global conditions favour deployment of solar, which is instantaneous in most cases, as prices of solar equipment decline.
But the continent is more excited about the recent discovery of natural gas in countries such as Mozambique and Tanzania.
Because of the discoveries, the two countries now account for about half of the gas-powered power potential in Africa.
Actually, Mozambique’s estimated reserves are the fourth largest in the world.
Despite such endownments, only Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania presently use their gas resources for domestic consumption. Overall, Africa is projected to generate more than 400GW of power from gas in the next 25 years. But in Zimbabwe nothing meaningful has been done on this front.
Africa also has unlimited potential for generating hydro-electric power, a relatively cheap source of energy. The Upper Nile and DRC have the largest untapped potential for hydro power as they have the largest flowing water bodies on the continent. The Grand Inga project, which Sadc is prioritising, could generate an additional 44GW. South Africa seems to be taking a lead and active role in investing in the project in order to meet demand from its expanding industries. And we haven’t even started talking of the potential from smaller hydropower plants.
Encouragingly, Zimbabwe forecasts that it will be able to shore up supplies from this source by 600MW in the next three years as the expansion of Kariba South- the country’s workhorse – is well underway. Likewise, there are other projects that are being implemented in various parts of the continent. Ethiopia has the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam being built near the border with The Sudan, which will be one of the world’s largest dams. So, the future of Africa is not dark or bleak – it is promising.
All in all, projects in solar, hydro and natural gas could add more than 500GW, which is more than five times the power that is presently being generated. Implementation of these projects is possible. They are feasible.
Emerging economies such as Brazil, China and Indonesia have achieved rapid electrification over short time periods.
For example, the APR notes that Vietnam achieved universal provision in less than 15 years.
But there is an urgent need to look at our tariff structure, which is ridiculous by any measure, and lure investment.
The country’s power tariff at USc9 per kilowatt hour is below the regional average tariff of USc15/kWh, while the average cost for electricity is USc12 in the US and USc15 in the UK.
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