The Sunday Mail
Most post-colonial dispensations in Africa have remained fragile owing to disputed election outcomes in which opposition political parties perennially allege electoral fraud each time the incumbent wins.
| From Gabon, Nigeria, Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, the DRC, Zambia, Angola, Zimbabwe to Mozambique; the continent is littered with a history of electoral disputes, some of which have fledged out into open civil strife. |
In early September, clashes in Gabon left several dead after the incumbent, Ali Bongo, was declared winner of a disputed presidential poll.
Bongo’s victory sparked fighting in Libreville and Port-Gentil after challenger Jean Ping claimed the vote had been rigged.
Typical cases of post-election tensions have taken place in Ivory Coast, Kenya, Nigeria, Togo, Zimbabwe, the DRC, Zambia, Mozambique, Angola and Madagascar.
In the Ivory Coast, then incumbent Laurent Gbagbo was detained on April 11, 2011 by forces loyal to his main rival, Alassane Ouattara, after a five-month-stand-off.
Ouattara was later recognised as the winner of the October 2010 presidential election, but some 3 000 people had died in post-election violence.
Violence also erupted in Kenya after disputed election results in Kenya’s December 27, 2007 presidential poll won by Mwai Kibaki.
About 1 300 lives were lost while 600 000 people were displaced.
This was not the first time for that country to experience post-election violence.
In elections held in 1992 and 1997, ethnic-related clashes in the western Rift Valley led to the deaths of hundreds of people.
In Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, post-election unrest claimed 800 lives after a disputed April 2011 presidential election in which President Goodluck Jonathan was declared victor ahead of the then opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari.
Clashes also resulted in the death of about 500 people in Togo after the election of Faure Gnassingbe in the 2005 presidential election after the death of his father, Gnassingbe Eyadema.
Zimbabwe, which has consistently held democratic elections since attaining independence in 1980, also experience high levels of violence of the stalemate vote of March 29, 2008 when none emerged the ultimate winner between President Mugabe and opposition challenger Morgan Tsvangirai.
A replica of worse violence was also witnessed in the DRC in 2011 general elections that were marred by allegations of fraud. Incumbent Joseph Kabila officially won re-election but challenger Etienne Tshisekedi rejected the results and the country is yet to recover from the residual effects of that violence.
Not to be outdone, the island nation of Madagascar was also plunged into violence in 2002 when Didier Ratsiraka challenged the proclaimed victory of Marc Ravalomanana in the first round of a presidential poll.
In all the elections, opposition parties have alleged electoral fraud and refused to accept the electoral outcome.
While some of the opposition allegations of heavy handedness of the state against opposition parties may have credence, it is curious to note that there seems to be a wave of calls for electoral reforms in Ghana, Kenya, South Sudan, DRC, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and even South Africa by opposition groups that attribute their failure to assume power to skewed electoral laws.
Instead of undertaking self-introspection of their poor showing in elections, most opposition parties rush to pander the mantra of rigging or the uneven electoral field.
In Zimbabwe, the opposition went further to allege that the Government had hired an Israeli company to carry out a ratchet rigging exercise. However, they failed to substantiate the allegations when pressed for evidence.
In an attempt to critically and scientifically trace the veracity of opposition political parties’ electoral fraud allegations and also trace the genesis of disputed elections in Africa, Afrobarometer — a reputable international think-tank carried out a survey in 2015.
Its results were astounding and if taken seriously must provoke the opposition out of their perceived victimhood mentality.
Titled “The viability of political opposition in Africa: Popular views”, the report established that most African citizens lack trust of opposition political parties and are of the view that they should not maintain an adversarial relationship with the ruling parties.
Instead, the majority of people interviewed in 20 African countries preferred that the opposition cooperates with the ruling party for national development.
Although the majority preferred a multi-party system, the majority of citizens think that the opposition parties lack a viable vision and plan for governing.
Only Malawi, Madagascar and Ghana had majority of people saying the opposition parties could have a viable alternative vision.
“To begin to assess the viability of political opposition in Africa, Afrobarometer asks about popular support for a multi-party political system. On average across 20 countries, two-thirds (68 percent) of Africans interviewed say they prefer a system with “many political parties” to ensure that voters have a choice of leaders at the time of elections.
“Although multi-party competition attracts majority support, it does so at a lower level than elections in general (83 percent, not shown), which suggests that at least some Africans remain comfortable with ceremonial contests that serve mainly to confirm incumbents in power,” read part of the report.
The countries include Swaziland, Senegal, Lesotho, Madagascar, Nigeria, Tanzania, Kenya, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Mali, Togo, Botswana, Benin, Zambia, Mauritius, Namibia, Cameroon, Malawi, Burundi, Cape Verde and Cote d’ivoire.
Ironically, whereas human rights activists deride Swaziland’s monarch for lack of democracy, the report established that only 31 percent of the country’s population support multi-party democracy with 64 percent believing that a multi-party is divisive to the country.
A very insignificant number of people in the countries surveyed felt that elections offered voters genuine choice with Nigeria having 33 percent, Zimbabwe 46 percent and Tanzania 48 percent. Five southern Africa are in the top ten of countries whose citizens think the opposition must not play an adversarial role against ruling parties.
These countries include Zambia, Tanzania, Lesotho, Malawi and Namibia while Zimbabwe is number 11 out of the surveyed 20 countries.
The classic view of the opposition’s role in a democracy is that it should be a watchdog and inevitably a critic of government, checking the activities of public officials and holding them politically accountable.
But Afrobarometer results reveal that Africans generally do not subscribe to this vision.
On average across 20 countries, only one fourth (27 percent) of survey respondents consider that “opposition parties should monitor and criticise government in order to hold it accountable”.
Strong majorities in almost every country ranging from 61 percent in Ghana to 82 percent in Botswana and Senegal instead want opposition parties to “cooperate with the government and help it develop the country”.
Only in Mauritius, a parliamentary system that has experienced frequent electoral turnovers has a majority opting for an adversarial role for a (loyal) opposition.
In terms of trust, ruling party exceeds trust in the opposition in 16 out of 20 Afrobarometer countries in 2015, though the gap is very small in Benin, and in Madagascar.
Given the attitude of voters and their mistrust of opposition political parties, it then puzzles most observers why most elections in Africa in recent years have always been disputed.
The reason, according to some analysts, is foreign interference.
This can explain why there seems to be a chorus across six African countries for electoral reforms in Ghana, Kenya, DRC, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and South Sudan.
Instead of critically assessing the marketability of their policies to the electorate, most opposition parties allege vote-rigging when defeated at polls.
That some electoral systems need re-modeling may be true, but there is a lot of credence that post-election violence in Africa is externally induced and fuelled on the continent. — Zimpapers Syndication Services
