The Sunday Mail
:La Nina begins to take its toll : Disaster management under scrutiny
Harmony Agere —
THE monstrous flash flood that hit Johannesburg, South Africa recently has left a miserable toll: six people dead, thousands others displaced and lots of property damaged.
Just across the border in Zimbabwe’s Bulilima district in Matabeleland South, hail storms killed livestock and destroyed 50 homesteads. The disasters seem to be confirming early warnings that the El Nino weather phenomenon is giving way to its opposite natural successor, La Nina.
While El Nino is characterised by prolonged dry conditions which lead to drought, La Nina usually unleashes the scourge of heavy rains and floods, particularly in Southern Africa.
Experts fear the conditions “may persist into April”.
“Unfortunately, scientific evidence is indicating that these extreme events are likely to continue and with a more than 50 percent likelihood of a La Nina, a phenomena that usually follows El Nino and which is characterised by heavy rains and flooding in Southern Africa, may persist into 2017,” UNDP country co-ordinator for Zimbabwe Ms Verity Nyagah warned in April.
These early predictions were confirmed by both the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department and the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum seasonal forecasts.
While they do not exactly point out to flooding, both forecasts warn of “higher than usual rainfall amount”.
As such, and mindful of the socio-economic damage which can be caused by such disasters, it is profoundly important that the nation should be made aware of the potential dangers for strategic planning purposes.
However, there seems to be no systematic dissemination of critical information from key Government arms such as the Met Department and Civil Protection Unit.
Questions about Zimbabwe’s vulnerability to floods, preparedness to deal with disasters and awareness in rural communities have not been sufficiently answered by the authorities.
Efforts to get a clear action plan of how the season will pan out and the state of preparedness of the critical arms of Government were unsuccessful last week.
“Apart from what the Met Department has already said, there is inadequate information on the ground. There are currently no plans and training of village farmers on how to deal with floods if they come and that’s critical,” said Zimbabwe Farmers Union director Mr Paul Zakariya.
“Imagine, the last time we had a similar problem in Chingwizi and people ended up losing livestock and property, a situation which could have been avoided.
“So there is need to set up disaster management schemes in villages so that escape roots are established. The schemes can also help with the creation of waterways so that excess water does not stay on productive land or residential areas. It is important that we do this quickly.”
Mr Zakariya emphasised that villagers needed to be trained on disaster management, while critical Government agencies had to be visible on the ground.
There is concern Zimbabwe’s infrastructure might not cope with floods. In a research paper early this year, Dr Nsadisa Faka of the Sadc Climate Services Centre said although Zimbabwe was well-prepared to deal with floods in the Zambezi Basin, the same could not be said about the rest of the country.
“We would like to commend Zimbabwe because it is one of the countries which are ready to act in case floods happen,” he said. “But a lot can be done to improve the infrastructure to deal with the floods. The infrastructure in Zimbabwe right now cannot stand floods.”
Despite these warnings, it does not appear resources are being committed to improving the situation. Zimbabwe National Water Authority spokesperson Ms Marjorie Munyonga said flash floods occurred if heavy rains persisted for more than three hours.
“Flash floods occur normally within three to six hours of heavy rain fall,” she said. “We first check various characteristics to see if rainfall can lead to floods. For example, rainfall should not exceed 10mm, if it does there is a huge possibility of flash floods.”
UN agencies have warned that to ensure farmers benefit from the heavy rains there should be early planting. But most farmers have little or no capital to buy agricultural inputs, having been hit by successive droughts over the years.
Nevertheless, there is hope that Zimbabwe could dodge floods due to uneven rainfall distribution in the region. According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, poor distribution of rainfall in Southern Africa can lead to severe drought in some areas and flooding in others.
About 22 million people in Southern Africa were left food insecure after the El Nino-induced drought last year. And the arrival of La Nina has raised fears of another round of crop failure.
