Stakes couldn’t be higher for liberation movements

IT is fair to say that all eyes from the region and beyond will be trained on Namibia on Wednesday, where yet another liberation movement, South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), will face a litmus test in a particularly treacherous environment where the anti-liberation movement crusade seems to be at its most formidable.

FRELIMO, now under the stewardship of the fresh-faced Daniel Chapo, weathered the storm in the October 9 poll, as its presidential candidate bagged an emphatic and commanding 4 912 762 votes — 3,5 million more than those of closest rival Venâncio António Bila Mondlane, who only managed 1 412 517 votes.

Claiming the vote was rigged after such a chastising thrashing is obviously as preposterous as it is a hard sell.

The post-election violence and disturbances in Maputo will likely fade away, especially after the Southern African Development Community (SADC) expectedly pronounced itself.

SWAPO has shown its organisational capacity and heft during the campaign

It is trite that Mozambique is a republic that is governed by a clear set of rules and regulations.

And the same rules do not countenance the mediation of political power on the streets, but within the confines of the law.

This is the essence of the rule of law.

Is it not? As sure as the sun rises from the east and sets in the west, Cde Chapo will be sworn in as the next president of Mozambique in January. In South Africa, the Africa National Congress (ANC) — the continent’s oldest liberation movement — held on after losing an absolute majority for the first time since independence in 1994.

Circumstances have, therefore, forced it to be strange bedfellows with its ideological opposite, the racist Democratic Alliance, and a motley of other smaller opportunistic political parties.

The fallout between the party and its former president Jacob Zuma, who founded uMkhonto weSizwe party five months before the May 29 elections, cost it dearly, particularly in KwaZulu Natal province.

This week, however, it is Namibia’s political gladiator SWAPO’s time in the colosseum, where it will naturally be fighting for both its life and future.

A lot is at stake.

Our worst enemies

But there is an interesting backdrop that will make it a highly anticipated contest and affair.

Struggle veteran Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will make history as the first female presidential candidate ever to be fielded by a liberation movement.  Of course, we know that Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu Hassan will be up next in the 2025 polls.

But, crucially, in this week’s election, those who are betting against SWAPO are cocksure that Panduleni Itula’s Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) will inflict a mortal blow on the party that has governed Namibia since independence in 1990.

We must remember that it was Itula — incidentally a former SWAPO cadre — who cut the late former president Hage Geingob’s winning tally from a thumping 87 percent in 2014 to 56 percent in 2019. The ruling party also lost its two-thirds majority in parliament.

So, they expect Itula to carry that momentum into this week’s watershed plebiscite.

Ominously, the lingering fallout from Covid-19 and socio-economic challenges spawned by current geopolitical tensions have been unkindest on incumbent governments, particularly in resource-dependent economies in this part of the world.

What happened in Botswana is instructive.

And considering that Namibians who were born after independence now constitute half of the population, this obviously has the makings of a perfect storm.

Bishop Lazi recently told you about the revolution that is now being driven by this seemingly politically totemless demographic, which is relatively unencumbered by the nationalist fealty of old. They are willing to risk it all for change — any change for that matter — as they believe that nothing could be worse than their perceived current wretched circumstances.

You see, while the liberation project delivered freedom and independence, it has unfortunately struggled to usher in prosperity, which the current generation needs and now demands.

But this is not the major threat that liberation movements are facing. Internal contradictions and bad blood among comrades have often had the deleterious impact of precipitating implosions.

We saw this in Tanzania’s Chama Cha Mapinduzi in the 2015 election, where former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa, who harboured the unbridled ambition of succeeding Jakaya Kikwete, walked away and formed a coalition of opposition political parties, after John Magufuli — a dark horse in the succession race — assumed the helm of the ruling party.

In the subsequent election, Magufuli, however, triumphed after securing 58 percent of the vote.

This was notably lower than the 61,2 percent achieved by his predecessor in the November 2010 elections, indicating that Lowassa had to an extent helped shave off some support from the ruling party. Through vicious pursuit of people-centred developmental policies and projects, Magufuli brought back the magic.

In the November 2020 elections, he resultantly blew the opposition out of the water after 12,5 million (84 percent) people voted for him, compared to 1,9 million who voted for the nearest challenger, Tundu Lissu.

We also saw what happened in Botswana in the just-ended election, where the ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party, was hollowed out and torpedoed by a sulking Ian Khama, who had fallen out with his erstwhile comrade, Mokgweetsi Masisi.

Khama’s gravitas in Botswana’s politics, especially as the traditional leader of that country’s largest ethnic group, the Bamangwato, and son of the founding father, Seretse, should not be underestimated. We also saw the same in Zimbabwe during the March 29, 2008 elections, where Mavambo, a splinter from ZANU PF, took away critical votes — 207 470 — that would have taken the ruling party over the line.

Bishop Lazarus has already told you about the political dynamics in South Africa that almost upended the ANC.

However, notwithstanding the potential impact of Itula, who practised as a dentist in England for over 30 years before returning back to Namibia in 2013, and is increasingly being linked to the British, SWAPO has so far shown its organisational capacity and heft.

It has been leading the IPC in provisional parliamentary and presidential postal votes.

And its rallies have been attracting huge crowds.

While some argue that gatherings at political rallies are not a reliable measurement of political support, the United States election, where Trump attracted multitudes, tell a different story.

Story of reluctant disciples

The Oppenheimer-founded Brenthurst Foundation has been on a relentless crusade to dislodge liberation movements on the continent for obvious reasons.

As part of its strategy, this neo-imperial creature has been conscripting our own people to lead the crusade in order to cloak it with a veneer of legitimacy and authenticity among locals by posing as an organic nationalist opposition movement.

Of course, its provenance, having been birthed by extractive forces that pillaged our resources and communities during the colonial era, proves that it is nothing more than a ravenous wolf in sheep’s clothing.

Matthew 7:15-20 warns us: “Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will recognise them by their fruits. Are grapes gathered from thornbushes, or figs from thistles? So, every healthy tree bears good fruit, but the diseased tree bears bad fruit. A healthy tree cannot bear bad fruit, nor can a diseased tree bear good fruit. Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. Thus, you will recognise them by their fruits.”

But one of the Brenthurst Foundation crusaders, Olusegun Obasanjo, seems to be a reluctant disciple of this gospel.

During a closed-door meeting earlier this year with fellow former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan, Obasanjo — who ironically co-authored the book “Democracy Works: Turning Politics to Africa’s Advantage” together with our own Tendai Biti, Jeffrey Herbst and Greg Mills — expressed his exasperation with the performance of Western democracy in Africa and proposed an alternative system, which he called Afro-democracy.

This new model, he proposed, would incorporate Nigerian and African cultural, traditional and lifestyle elements.

“Our constitution started on a faulty base. It’s a product of their culture and tradition. Western democracy has what is called opposition. They have loyal opposition because they are loyal to the monarchy. We had thriving kingdoms. We rule ourselves with consensus. If you commit an abomination, you will be punished,” said the former Nigerian leader.

“Let us look at our lives. Our lives are characterised or symbolised by communalism. If we now come back home, we will get it right. You can call it Afro-democracy not democracy of opposition. We can move and agree to the structure we are going to put in place.

“There is the need for ideology . . . If you do it well, we will have that critical mass.

“Something that encompasses our culture, our tradition our ways of life. You can call it Afro-democracy or whatever you call it. Let’s resource, let’s see debate, let’s dialogue. Don’t let them pervert our own culture and tradition.”

Kikikikiki.

Africa really needs to relook itself in the mirror.

SWAPO must win!

Bishop out!