Commanding ourselves to feed our stomachs

14 Aug, 2016 - 06:08 0 Views

The Sunday Mail

Darlington Musarurwa Business Editor’s Brief
THERE is a local proverb that captures how cynical it is for those who live in the mountains to ask for rocks and stones from those who live in the valley. However, considering our own circumstances, this is no longer cynical. How else can one explain a situation where China, which is home to 1,3 billion souls – about 20 percent of the world’S population – donates rice worth US$24 million to Zimbabwe, which has a population of 13 million.

Granted, the country experienced a devastating El Nino-induced drought in the 2015/2016 summer cropping season, but this cannot possibly explain why this year’s maize production – estimated at 350 000 metric tonnes – is considerably lower than production realised in the 1997/1998 summer cropping season, which was affected by a similar weather phenomenon. In fact, at the time, it was so bad that it was dubbed the El Nino of the century.

Maize production in 1997 actually topped 1,5 million metric tonnes.

It is however reassuring that preparation for the forthcoming cropping season is well underway.

It is also heartening to note that Government has decided to settle on a targeted command agriculture approach, where more than 2 000 farmers are expected to each put about 200 hectares under maize production. Each farmer will be expected to produce more than 1 000 tonnes of maize.

Overall, the Cabinet Committee on Food Security and Nutrition projects that two million tonnes of maize will be produced on 400 000ha. Half of the crop will be under irrigation.

The country’s highest ever maize production was realised in 1984 at 3 million metric tonnes.

If the economy is to be set on a sustainable growth path, there is need to ensure that the food produced on local farms is not only enough for food security but for local industries as well.

The multiplier effect could be immense.

Considering that the country presently needs in excess of 750 000 tonnes, Government will spend between US$180 million and US$255 million paying foreign farmers for enough grain to feed the nation. So, essentially, these are needless leakages from the system and should also be considered as lost revenues for local farmers. But it is folly to think that Government’s singular initiative is enough to make our challenges disappear. The private sector also needs to do its bit through contract farming. It has worked for the tobacco sector and it will definitely work for other sectors as well.

Our risk averse banks, which are sitting on huge stockpiles of cash, have to step up to the plate.

This demonstrates the sheer amount of effort that Government has to invest to come up with a well-rounded plan that covers financing, irrigation and production.

Statutory Instrument 64 of 2016 has afforded Zimbabwe’s productive sector the much-needed window of opportunity to get its act together.

After this limited window closes, the productive sectors are expected to have regained a solid footing.

Abandoning rain-fed agriculture

The 2016/2017 summer cropping season should be the period that Zimbabwe makes a break from rain-fed agriculture to a farming system that is heavily reliant on irrigation.

This entails investment into rain harvesting as well.

Relying on weather conditions at a time when global climatic conditions are not predictable is fatal. But irrigation cannot be the only solution. There is also need for heavy investment in agricultural equipment through an elaborate mechanisation programme for local farmers.

This is the formula that has been used successfully by China.

Between 1980 and 2011, China’s food production increased more than fourfold owing to the increased use of machinery, improved irrigation and hybrid crops.

It is therefore unsurprising that in the same period the portion of household incomes allocated to buy food by Chinese families dropped markedly, highlighting the socio-economic impact of agricultural productivity.

Providing equipment only cannot be effective if it is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in what economist call the total productivity factor, which is the ability to produce more from each unit of input.

In terms of average yields per hectare for most crops, Zimbabwe does not fare well than its peers in the region.

Mindful of La Nina

The preparations that are currently being made must be mindful of the potential impact of the wetter-than-usual conditions that might be caused by La Nina.

Weather forecasters, including the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, which is considered to be more accurate, predict that chances of flooding are more than certain in Southern Africa for the 2016/2017 farming season.

La Nina, just like El Nino, usually peaks during the December to February period. All this needs to be seriously considered in the planning process.

If the country experiences another poor farming season, local industry is likely to choke. Most companies rely on imported raw materials, which is unsustainable.

For as long as this remains the case, they cannot be expected to compete effectively with companies from other efficient economies.

The coming farming season will undoubtedly indicate how local companies and the economy are likely to perform going forward.

Zimbabwe cannot afford another poor agricultural season.

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