The Sunday Mail
The Sunday Mail last week commissioned Mr Jonah Mafodya, the chair of the University of Zimbabwe Department of Statistics, to do some number crunching within the context of trends in Zimbabwe’s most recent general elections.
The following are excerpts from his research, which he conducted in his personal capacity. Our conclusion from his findings is that any calls for poll boycotts are bound to be largely ignored as more and more Zimbabweans are inclined to exercise their democratic right to vote.
Further, by-elections tend to attract fewer voters, notwithstanding the discredited boycott calls, and turnout for these polls is a measure of a political party’s mobilisations capacities — a capacity that the ruling Zanu-PF has shown to have in greater measure than its opponents. And it must be borne in mind that MDC-T held all but two of these constituencies before June 10, 2015. Mr Mafodya’s analysis looks at prior performance in the 16 constituencies that Zanu-PF swept in last week’s by-elections.
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There has been a general increase in the populations of most constituencies. Voter turnout has been increasing in most constituencies. Voter turnout has generally been very low in by-elections. The winning margins have been generally high in most areas.
Lobengula
The constituency population was 27 586 in 2008 and declined by 9,2 percent in 2013. The total number of persons who voted in 2008 was 7 149, increasing by 23 percent to 8 810 in 2013, representing a 26 percent and 35 percent voter turnout in 2008 and 2015 respectively.
The electorate increased three percent between 2008 and 2013. In 2008, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 14 percent, four percent and seven percent of the electorate; and 54 percent, 16 percent and seven percent of the actual vote.
In the 2013 elections, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 22 percent, seven percent and four percent respectively of the electorate. The parties got 63 percent, 21 percent and 13 percent of the actual vote.
Luveve
The voting population was almost the same in 2008 and 2013. The 2015 elections saw a 14 percent increase, from 24 846 to 28 439. Voter turnout in the 2008 and 2013 elections was 34 percent and 48 percent.
In 2008, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 13 percent, four percent and 13 percent of the electorate; and 40 percent, 11 percent and 38 percent of turnout.
In 2013, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 22 percent, 12 percent and nine percent of the electorate. They got 47 percent, 24 percent and 20 percent of voters who turned out.
Makokoba
The voting population increased from 26 195 in 2013 to 28 844 in 2015. Voter turnout increased from 30 percent in 2008 to 48 percent in 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 15 percent, five percent and nine percent of the electorate.
In the 2013 general elections, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 27 percent, 14 percent and six percent of the electorate. The same parties got 57 percent, 28 percent and 12 percent of turnout.
Pelandaba-Mpopoma
Voting population declined seven percent between the 2008 and 2013 elections, while turnout declined from 19 percent to 15 percent. The electorate grew nine percent between 2013 and 2015.
In the 2008 elections, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 13 percent, two percent and two percent of the electorate; and 72 percent, 11 percent and 12 percent of the actual vote.
In 2013, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 23 percent, eight percent and four percent of the electorate; and 60 percent, 21 percent and 10 percent of turnout.
Pumula
The constituency voting population was 25 444 in 2008 and declined three percent to 24 622 in 2013. The total number of actual voters in 2008 was 7 640, which increased 44 percent to 11 015 in 2013. Turnout was 30 percent in 2008 and 45 percent in 2013. The voting population increased nine percent to 26 786 in 2015.
In 2008, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 14 percent, five percent and 11 percent of the electorate; and 45 percent, 16 percent and 36 percent of turnout.
In 2013, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 25 percent, 12 percent and six percent of the electorate; and 55 percent, 26 percent and 14 percent of the actual vote.
Dzivarasekwa
The voting population was 22 596 in 2008 and 22 971 in 2013; it increased eight percent in 2015. Voter turnout was 44 percent and 45 percent in 2008 and 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T and Zanu-PF got 28 percent and 12 percent of the electorate; and 64 percent and 28 percent of turnout.
In 2013, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 28 percent, 12 percent and three percent of the electorate. They had 61 percent, 27 percent and seven percent of the voters who turned out.
Glen View South
The constituency voting population was 27 689 in 2008, falling to 24 954 in 2013, and growing to 25 975 in 2015. Turnout was constant at 39 percent in 2008 and 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T and Zanu-PF got 33 percent and 12 percent of the electorate. These parties had 86 percent and 12 percent of the vote.
In 2013, MDC-T and Zanu-PF got 85 percent and six percent of the actual vote.
Harare East
The voting population was 30 132 in 2008 and increased to 33 180 in 2013. It was 36 062 by 2015. Turnout increased from 37 percent in 2008 to 56 percent in 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T and Zanu-PF had 28 percent and nine percent of the electorate; and 76 percent and 23 percent of turnout.
Come 2013, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC had 29 percent, 25 percent and two percent of the electorate; and 51 percent, 44 percent and four percent turnout.
Highfield
The constituency voting population was 26 278 in 2008 and declined 11 percent to 23 182 in 2013. It increased by 116 eligible voters by 2015. Turnout increased from 37 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in 2013.
2008 saw MDC-T and Zanu-PF get 29 percent and five percent of the electorate; and got 77 percent and 14 percent of turnout. In 2013, they got 29 percent and 11 percent of the electorate, and 65 percent and 25 percent of turnout.
Kambuzuma
The voting population was 21 650 in 2008, 22 096 in 2013, and 24 284 in 2015. Turnout increased from 41 percent in 2008 to 59 percent in the 2013 elections.
In 2008, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 31 percent, six percent and three percent of the electorate; and 75 percent, 16 percent and seven percent of turnout.
In 2013, these parties got 36 percent, 19 percent and three of the electorate; as well as 61 percent, 32 percent and five percent of turnout.
Kuwadzana
The voting population was 27 215 in 2008 and declined 14 percent in 2013, before growing 10 percent by 2015. Turnout increased from 41 percent in 2008 to 62 percent in 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T and Zanu-PF had 33 percent and eight percent of the electorate, and 81 percent and 19 percent of turnout.
2013 saw MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC get 38 percent, 19 percent and four percent of the voting population; and 61 percent, 31 percent and seven percent of turnout.
Dangamvura-Chikanga
Constituency voter population was 27 215 in 2008 and 30 680 in 2013. This increased 50 percent between 2008 and 2015, though turnout declined from 55 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T and Zanu-PF got 37 percent and four percent of the electorate, and 66 percent and 24 percent of turnout.
Come 2013, MDC-T had 30 percent of the voter population, Zanu-PF 13 percent and MDC two percent. The parties got 67 percent, 28 percent and thee percent of turnout.
Headlands
The voting population was 25 563 in 2008, 27 540 in 2013, and increased 15 percent by 2015. Turnout increased from 50 percent in 2008 to 59 percent in 2013.
In 2008, Zanu-PF and MDC-T got 28 percent and 17 percent of the voting population. The same political parties got 57 percent and 33 percent of the actual vote.
In 2013, Zanu-PF, MDC-T and MDC had 40 percent, 16 percent and three percent of the electorate. The parties had 68 percent, 28 percent and five percent of turnout.
Hurungwe West
Constituency voting population was 25 834 in 2008 and increased two percent to 26 261 in 2013, before increasing a further seven percent by 2015. Turnout was up from 38 percent in 2008 to 47 percent in 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T and Zanu-PF got 22 percent and 16 percent of the electorate; and 55 percent and 41 percent of turnout.
By 2013, Zanu-PF had 32 percent of the electorate to MDC-T’s 10 percent. Zanu-PF had 69 percent of turnout to MDC-T’s 21 percent and MDC’s five percent.
Tsholotsho North
The voting population in the 2008 was 29 874 and 11 percent down to 26 646 in 2013, but increased two percent by 2015. Turnout increased from 18 percent in 2008 to 41 percent in 2013.
In 2008, MDC and Zanu-PF had 11 percent and seven percent of the voting population, and 61 percent and 39 percent of the turnout.
In 2013, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 18 percent, 17 percent and four percent of the electorate. The parties got 45 percent, 43 percent and 10 percent of turnout.
Mbizo
The constituency voting population was 24 558 in 2008 and 24 704 in 2013. The electorate increased seven percent between 2013 and 2015. Turnout increased from 38 percent in 2008 to 52 percent in 2013.
In 2008, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 24 percent, 10 percent and four percent of the electorate; and 64 percent, 26 percent and nine percent of turnout.
In 2013, MDC-T, Zanu-PF and MDC got 54 percent, 41 percent and five percent of turnout.
