Met Department forecasts: Farmers cry foul

04 Dec, 2016 - 00:12 0 Views
Met Department forecasts: Farmers cry foul

The Sunday Mail

Harmony Agere —
THE rainfall season is well underway but the general consensus is that so far, the season has not turned out to be what many people had hoped for.

Although there have been significant rains and even storms in some parts of the country, some people are already bracing for the worst due to the erratic nature of the rains so far.

The development has raised concerns over the credibility of weather forecasts issued by the Meteorological Services Department, particularly the seasonal outlook.

In their seasonal outlook, the Met Department predicted that there was “high likelihood of an early start of the season for the whole country”, with significant rains as early as late September for southern parts of the country.

The department had also predicted normal to above normal rains between October, November and December for the whole country. Observers say some of these predictions have not come to pass and may have misled people as the rains did not come in predicted time and amounts.

Information gathered by this publication also shows that only small parts of Manicaland have received normal rainfall so far. The rest of the country still has a long way to catch up with the predicted amounts, with expects saying the trend is pointing towards below normal rainfall in most parts of the country between October, November and December.

“As per the outlook, the season has not turned out to be what we expected.

‘‘We were expecting the rains as early as September but meaningful rainfall only came mid-November,” said Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union president, Mr Wonder Chabikwa.

“This has greatly disadvantaged us because we were planning for a long season and some of the seed varieties we had picked are suitable for those conditions.”

Reports have also emerged that the La Nina, which was tipped to bring large amounts of rainfall, is now losing strength and its decline is expected throughout the season. Many are now wondering if the Met Department is adequately resourced to provide credible forecasts.

“While we all agree that forecasts are based on probability, we should also agree that the margin of error should be minimal,” said an agricultural science research expert with a local non-governmental organisation.

“In our case, the margin of error was just too great. It’s one thing to say the rains are coming tomorrow only for them to come the next one and another to say the rains are coming tomorrow only for them to come a week later.”

The Met Department is however adamant that the country is still within the forecast, saying their predictions indicates that the season started in October.

They say the prediction that there will be normal to above normal rains in the first three months of the rain season can still be fulfilled since their forecast does not focus on distribution but the amount of rains.

This, they said, means a particular area may receive much of its rainfall at the start or at the end of season. Met Department deputy director, Mrs Rebecca Manzou said their forecasts are at least 80 percent accurate, adding that their department is often misunderstood.

“If we go back to our seasonal forecast, you will remember that we said there will be normal to above normal rains between October, November and December.

And our rainfall started in October.

“When we give you this forecast, we are not giving you the distribution, which is why you find out that in other places they have received above normal rainfall while others are still below normal.”

On La Nina, Mrs Manzou confirmed that it is not as strong at the present moment and warned that its probability could decline as the season progresses.

“They may say that its La Nina year but a La Nina everywhere else is not a La Nina in Zimbabwe,” she said.

“The La Nina started strong. After El Nino, people thought there would be a La Nina. So it started strong but then went into the neutral phase and therefore is not as strong.

“You may think that the probability of La Nina is a lot but as the season goes by you will see that the strength of the probability declines.

‘‘By the end of the season you will see that the neutral phase will be very much in control of our season,” said Mrs Masanga.

This could mean the country may not receive abundant rainfall as people are hoping for. There are reports that only 300 of the Met Department’s 1 400 stations are working.

Some of the equipment is said to be over 100 years old. Acting director, Pomokai Mazhara said the country’s Met Department is equipped like that of any other country in the Sadc region.

He said the equipment donated by the Chinese last year actually put them among the best equipped meteorological departments in the region. He also said the department outsources certain services from international organisations to complement their efforts.

Zimbabwe is an agro-based economy and last year’s drought meant little economic growth was realised while about 4 million people were left food insecure.

The impact of the drought that swept across the Sadc region in the past two years has been felt across sectors such as agriculture, food and nutrition security, tourism, energy, health, water and sanitation and education.

Dam levels have dropped to their worst in decades while pasture and water scarcity has decimated livestock.

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