The Sunday Mail
Clemence Machadu
Howdy folks!
It is self-evident and beyond reasonable doubt that the situation in our republic has reached another level of progress.
Apart from being safe and sound, the socio-economic security of Mbuya Chenhamo in Chendambuya should be guaranteed by the powers that be.
The only target should really be the dangerous criminals around one ED. Yes, ED mbune!
But before punctuating that discourse, just a point of departure to clarify where we are. You see folks, the country’s growth rates over the past half decade are really not inspiring. They reflect the problems the general populace has been facing.
In 2013, Zimbabwe recorded a GDP growth of 4,5 percent, retreating to 3,9 percent in 2014 and further easing to 1,5 percent in 2015. It was much worse in 2016 when GDP was nearly zero, at 0,6 percent, the lowest growth rate so far in the dollarisation era. While the economy grew by 3,7 percent last year, it is still a far cry from what needs to happen for Mbuya Chenhamo to feel the difference for the better.
Folks, I believe that some of the reasons why the past half-decade was characterised by these low levels of growth are political bickering, poor policy implementation and gross economic mismanagement.
This is a period when factionalism in the ruling party reached fever pitch, with rallies being organised to discuss people, not ideas. We found the party rocked by divisions in its rank and file. The opposition too was not spared from the demon of division as we saw the main opposition party splitting several times, and weakening its ability to play its role, especially in Parliament.
But thanks to events of November last year, we now have a ruling party that is sensitive to progress and an opposition that is trying to hold Government accountable.
What is now needed is to utilise such a scenario to foster rapid economic development (ED) and ensure that we attain higher levels of GDP growth. Government is targeting growth levels of at least 7 percent per annum, but at the same time projects the country to be a middle income economy by 2030. This noble 2030 agenda requires double-digit annual growth to be achieved. Otherwise at current growth rates, it will take us centuries to reach the upper limits of a middle income economy.
You see, the World Bank classifies middle income economies as lower middle and upper middle. Lower middle income economies have a gross national income (GNI) per capita of between $1 006 and $3 955 while upper middle economies have a GNI per capita of between $3 956 and $12 235.
If we intend to attain the upper limits of upper middle income economy, it is prudent to define a radical and revolutionary growth trajectory that will make all the difference. We certainly cannot hope to make much progress by adopting a tired path of development.
This brings to mind my favourite poem by Robert Frost, titled “The Road Not Taken”, whose first stanza reads;
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveller, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth.
This is a defining moment for us and we have to customise an economic system that is inspired by our socio-economic aspirations.
And if we choose well, like in the last stanza of Robert Frost’s poem, one day this we shall say:
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I,
I took the one less travelled by,
And that has made all the difference.
But I don’t want to bore you with philosophy and literature.
Let’s talk about economic development (ED), which is the ED mbune I was referring to earlier. Folks, now that we have defined where we are and where we want to go, the important thing is to chart the shortest possible way and remove all the thorns in that trajectory.
I call these thorns “criminals around ED”.
Folks, Section 8(1) of the national Constitution says the State must formulate and implement “laws and policy decisions that will lead to the establishment, enhancement and promotion of a sustainable, just, free and democratic society in which people enjoy prosperous, happy and fulfilling lives”.
Should we not call those who sabotage this sacrosanct goal, “criminals of ED”? So the path to our promised land should not be lengthened by criminals with nothing but selfish intentions and negative mind-sets about our motherland.
Remember how it took the Israelites 40 years to walk a 400km journey from Egypt to Israel, instead of just 11 days.
You see folks, it can be like that for us; the land of milk and honey might be long in coming if the criminals around ED (economic development) are not targeted and eliminated.
It is important to review some of these criminals, which is what I will attempt to do for the remainder of this article.
Firstly, we need to break the resources curse that has been slapped on us.
In economics, there is a theory called the Paradox of Plenty which postulates that countries with many natural resources tend to record lower economic growth and less democracy than those with less natural resources, like Japan and India.
But what is it that Zimbabwe doesn’t have? Almost nothing! Even the climate is excellent, it brought health to Cecil John Rhodes. And these natural resources are the fundamental factors for ED to do its trick in our country.
We, however, need strong policies to ensure transparency and maximising return from all the riches in the pot-belly of our motherland, while also fostering sustainability. This is indispensable when it comes to breaking this resources curse.
The levels of capital formation in our economy are also not as they should be.
For our country to catalyse its speed of development, there is urgent need to moot innovative capital acquisition strategies from abroad while also mobilising our local folks to increase their savings with a view to lifting our levels of investment.
Our human resources base should also be skilled to be up to speed with the aspirations of ED. The country needs a labour development policy that seeks to foster efficient and skilled labour that is capable of contributing to ED. This can be achieved by coming up with a curriculum that is informed by the local industry and health promotion programmes. We must ensure that workers are mentally and physically healthy to optimally play their different roles. Most workers in the country suffer from mental health problems and do not have medical insurance. Zimbabwe also suffered skills flight during the period of economic meltdown and those people are building the economies of other countries that compete us out on the international markets.
Government should have a programme in place to attract these skills home to build their country, as opposed to just promoting them to send money home.
Folks, as alluded earlier, we should aim to realise maximum value from our natural resources in a sustainable manner.
Investments only seeking to accelerate the extraction of our resources and ship them abroad in their raw state should be minimised. Those that can afford to bring capital to extract our natural resources should also afford to set up processing plants locally. Exporting our resources in their raw state is akin to slave trade and borrowing too much from our future generations. It is therefore important to promote value addition programmes, while attention should be also paid on conditions in foreign trade.
While Zimbabwe is seeking to grow exports, which is the key source of foreign currency for the economy right now, it is ironic that we do not have a trade policy in place. Following the expiry of Zimbabwe’s National Trade Policy in 2016, there has not been a successor policy.
Zimbabwe should prioritise to have this policy in place at its earliest convenience in the same manner it is prioritising exports.
And when it comes to the agriculture sector, we should move from mere production to high productivity; and from food security to food surplus and exportation. That entails increasing marketable surplus of agricultural products.
There are huge markets for agricultural products in Gulf countries, Russia and other markets and these should be tapped into. Another notorious criminal I do not want to talk much about is corruption, as I have written about it before.
Suffice to say that it should be urgently targeted for elimination from our systems.
Folks, you will also agree with me that no meaningful economic development will take place without full participation and support of local citizens.
It is the duty of Government to mobilise economic consciousness amongst the different populations of the economy and to promote equality. Otherwise if people do not see how they will benefit from ED, they will certainly not support it.
Folks, only rapid ED will enhance the quality of lives of many people in the country. The growth trajectory we have walked so far has been filled with inconsistencies. Zimbabwe’s GDP averaged 2,85 percent per annum between 1961 and 2016.
We have had moments when growth was as high as 22,57 percent in 1970 and as low as -17,20 in 2013. We need to bring consistence, high growth and draw our swords to target the criminals around ED.
Later folks!
Clemence Machadu is an economist, researcher and consultant. He writes for The Sunday Mail in his personal capacity.
