Good rains don’t mean good harvests

16 Oct, 2016 - 00:10 0 Views
Good rains don’t mean good harvests

The Sunday Mail

The Meteorological Services Department’s 2016-17 summer season outlook shows that the onset of the rains is a couple of weeks away. And this, by contrast, should be a very early season to preceding years when the rains came well into December. The outlook also indicates that Zimbabwe will experience better rainfall than last season through to 2017. This dovetails with the outlook issued by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, which anticipates good rains for the region. These forecasts have been condensed by some agricultural experts to mean bumper yields come April next year. Predictably, Zimbabwe has been engulfed by excitement as people impatiently wait for the rains to come and wash away the agonies of last year’s drought.

However, in the midst of all the excitement it appears the distribution pattern of the rains and the planning around it is being overlooked. And a mistaken notion that good rains guarantee good harvests has been effortlessly impressed on the people. But save for last year, history shows that the country has had positive rainfall forecasts in the past few years only to get poor yields.

This has been blamed on an uneven rainfall distribution pattern which was not well communicated to key stakeholders, leaving strategic planning in shambles. And like in previous instances Zimbabwe may find itself celebrating good rains when the season begins and rue it when it ends. This is because the rains will not be evenly and consistently distributed as much as they will be good.

“Despite the high chances of higher than usual rains this season, in terms of national strategic planning and development Zimbabwe should always expect, and plan for, one form of drought or another,” warned MSD meteorologist Ms Vimbai Mamombe. “It is now extremely rare for the whole country to experience the same weather conditions.”

According to the department, all three of the country’s climatic regions will receive normal to above normal rainfall in the first two months of the season between October and December. This means the rains will be within or above a normal of 307mm in Region I, 248mm in Region II and 261mm in Region III.

If this is anything to go by, farmers throughout the country can plant early and the seed will germinate without much problems. However, this opportunity cannot be missed by farmers in Regions I and II as rains will move from normal to below normal levels between November and January. Experts say it is the first sign of rainfall inconsistency right at the beginning of the season.

On the other hand, Region III, which comprises Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland and the bulk of Matabeleland South, will continue to enjoy good rains. Between December and February, the rains will be more favourable to Regions I and III as they will receive normal to above normal rains while Region II will continue with subdued rainfall.

Experts recognise that this uneven distribution of rainfall in the first part of the season is what has been the problem in the past.
They say if the planning at the beginning of the season is inconsistent with rainfall distribution, then the whole season can be affected.

“Because such information is not always dispensed to the farmers in comprehensible literature we see a lot of bad planning in the infancy of the season,” said Hastings Machingauta, who co-ordinates poverty eradication programmes in rural areas with a local NGO.

“But if you look at rainfall distribution for this season, farmers in Region II have to plant their crop with the first rains or they may never catch up because their season becomes inconsistent between November and February.”

As the season enters the final half between January and March 2017, Region II will record its a significant rise in rainfall amount while Region I will maintain its consistency. The Sarcof regional forecast predicts rainfall in Zimbabwe in two distinctive phases. It foresees good rains for the whole country between October and December 2016 but predicts a subdued season for southern districts between January and March 2017. All the three regions will likely get good amounts of rainfall through the season.

But it is the distribution and consistency, not the amount of rainfall, which should be of main concern to the farmer. Uneven distribution patterns can outweigh any amount of good rains if farming operations are not planned accordingly. To this effect, the Meteorological Services Department has warned that the country should prepare for the worst-case scenario.

But the inability of farmers to plan for distribution patterns has been cited as a shortcoming of the meteorology department, as some farmers complain that weather forecasts are not readily available to them. In some cases, the farmers further argue, the forecast is not comprehensible and applicable in their areas as they are always given in a broad sense.

A 2014 study conducted by researchers Shakespear Mudombi and Godwell Nhamo in Murehwa and Seke confirmed some of these concerns.

“The findings show that the two districts are and will be more vulnerable to dry spells, droughts and to some extent, violent storms,” the study noted. “There was a general lack of access to timely, reliable rainfall forecasts and early warning information on droughts and violent storms.

“For those that had access to the information, the main channels that transmitted the information were the radio extension, the television, and the farmers enquiring directly.

“The radio was the most important channel. Besides, the information being perceived as not very reliable, it played a significant role in the decision-making process of farmers, particularly, when deciding the time to plant and choosing crop varieties.

“A serious constraint for the farmers was lack of complementary information, inputs and technology that could be used to adjust their farming operations, in line with the forecasts.”

However, with the new forecasting equipment donated by China to Meteorological Services Department, it is expected that access to weather forecasting will improve. Zimbabwe Commercial Framers Union president Wonder Chabikwa said it was still a challenge for farmers to access comprehensible weather forecast on time.

“Normally the Meteorological Services Department forecasts rainfall amount not distribution and that is the main challenge,” he said. He, however, hailed the department’s modern technology.

“With the new equipment, the department will now give out information more easily. For instance they have distributed radios throughout the country which will be used for communication to the farmers. Also they are now doing real-time forecasting so a farmer can call and can be given weather forecast for a particular area.

“But our message to the farmers is that they should plant early and always make an effort to get weather updates at all times because unlike before we now have what we call mid-season droughts. Without this information farmers could encounter serious challenges.”

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