From the frying pan into the fire

03 Apr, 2016 - 00:04 0 Views
From the frying  pan into the fire Sadc region should now join hands together to come up with early warning systems so that countries can be better prepared to deal with flood disasters.

The Sunday Mail

Harmony Agere
The El Nino weather pattern which caused drought in Southern Africa and other parts of the world in the 2015-16 cropping season is now breaking into a neutral phase but could degenerate into its opposite phenomenon, the La Nina, thereby creating a possibility of heavy rainfall and flooding during the next season.
According to climate scientists, current projections show that the El Nino is now subsiding and could be over by mid-year.
The same projections, however, show that there is a 50 percent chance that the phenomenon could be succeeded by La Nina.
La Nina is the opposite condition of El Nino and whilst the latter causes high temperatures and dry spells; the former is characterised by heavy rainfall, floods and violent storms.
The weather pattern is a great threat to agricultural productivity and food security, and could also trigger a humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe and the Sadc region at large.
About 16 million people in the region are already food insecure following the El Nino-induced drought and governments have now been urged to be on high alert on the possibility of another disastrous season, this time due to La Nina.
Answering questions from journalists at the 19th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) conference held in Harare last week, the Sadc Climate Services Centre (CSC) representative, Mr Bradwell Garanganga confirmed the threat of La Nina but emphasised that a clearer picture can only be available in August.
“Current projections show that El Nino is transiting to a neutral phase and La Nina could gradually take over around November and December,” he said.
“However, there is still little data and we can only have a clearer picture in August when we do our regional forecast but, yes, that possibility exists.”
While Mr Garanganga emphasised that current predictions should never be taken as conclusive, he also revealed that two-thirds of the methods used to make the predictions indicated a possibility of the risk.
Addressing attendants at the same function, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Zimbabwe country co-ordinator, Ms Verity Nyagah said researches had established that there is over 50 percent chance of having La Nina in Sadc.
“Unfortunately, scientific evidence is indicating that these extreme events are likely to continue and with a more than 50 percent likelihood of a La Nina, a phenomena that usually follows El Nino and which is characterised by heavy rains and flooding in Southern Africa, may persist into 2017,” she said.
She said countries in the Sadc region should now join hands together to come up with early warning systems so that countries can be better prepared to deal with such disasters.
Minister of Environment, Water and Climate; Honourable Oppah Muchinguri Kashiri, said while El Nino is retreating, the country and the region should brace for worse conditions.
“While we welcome that the peak of the El Nino is over for now in some countries, we need to know as soon as possible what is in store for us in 2016-17,” she said.
“We need to be more prepared this time. All of us have learned a lot from this El Nino-induced drought.
“I am almost certain we should expect more surprises, including extremes in our weather and climate. The time has come for all of us to adapt and brace for the future.”
Minister Muchinguri encouraged governments in the Sadc region to invest in research.
Following revelations of a possible La Nina, it has also emerged that Zimbabwe’s infrastructure may not be able to cope with floods.
Dr Nsadisa Faka from CSC who presented a research paper on Sadc’s preparedness to deal with floods said while Zimbabwe was well prepared to deal with floods especially in the Zambezi River basin, there wasn’t adequate infrastructure to contain floods in the rest of the country.
“We would like to commend Zimbabwe because it is one of the countries which are ready to act in case floods happen,” he said.
“But a lot can be done to improve the infrastructure to deal with the floods.
“The infrastructure in Zimbabwe right now cannot stand floods.”
Dr Faka also reviewed that work is now being done to establish a regional early warning system to help Sadc prepare for such disasters.
He encouraged governments to support the initiative by contributing resources needed to set up a regional network.
Meteorological services organisations in Sadc have also been urged to contribute weather data for the initiative to work.
Stakeholders in agricultural industries, however, lament that in as much as meteorology has improved in Zimbabwe, its products are not reaching the common farmer as they are too complex to comprehend.
In many cases, the forecast is thrown as a bunch of figures and diagrams that need to be condensed for most farmers to understand them.
University of Zimbabwe lecturer, Ms Juliet Gwenzi, said for farmers to gain trust in the weather forecast and benefit from it, efforts should be made to give meaning to the predictions.
She said data collection for weather predictions should start from the smallest possible area rather than large scale where forecasts mainly give prominence starting with districts and provinces.
The Meteorological Services Department director, Dr Amos Makarau, said plans are already in place to make forecasts more comprehensible.
“We are working towards that and move from just being the announcer, we want our products to assist farmers in a real manner,” he said.
“We are also looking at providing the forecast in all official languages.”
Meanwhile, Mr Garanganga also revealed that the Sadc secretariat is working with member states to establish a regional appeals committee to raise food and aid for drought affected people in the Sadc region.
About three million people in Zimbabwe need food aid while about 16 million in the Sadc region are food insecure.

Share This:

Survey


We value your opinion! Take a moment to complete our survey

This will close in 20 seconds