The Sunday Mail
As preparations for the 2015 to 2016 cropping season continue, farmers and Government have been advised to plan accordingly as meteorologists have predicted yet another gloomy rain season for the second year running.
The country is currently enduring a severe grain shortage due to inadequate rains in the 2014/15 rainfall season and forecasters have warned that the country may have similar experiences this coming season if measures are not put in place to mitigate the problem.
The same pattern of poor rains as realised during last season, which has seen cattle graze in the usually water-filled Zambezi River, is likely to be repeated this coming season, if predictions by the Met Department are anything to go by
In his mid-year fiscal policy review, Finance and Economic Development Minister Patrick Chinamasa revealed that the 2014/15 season will likely reduce agricultural output by about 8,2 percent.
However, it is anticipated that the situation could worsen next year as researchers say there is a high chance that the El Nino effect will cause below normal rainfall.
According to the Meteorological Services Department (MSD), the country may experience a late and short rainfall season, which is expected to start in December and last until February.
Data released by MSD last week indicate that Region 1, which covers the Mashonaland provinces and some parts of Manicaland, is likely to receive below normal rainfall between October and November this year while normal to below normal rains are expected for Regions 2 and 3 during the same period.
Between November and December, normal to below normal rains are expected in Regions 1 and 2 while Region 3 may have normal to above normal rainfall.
Normal to above normal rainfall is expected for Regions 1 and 3 between December and February while Region 2 is expected to receive normal to below normal rains during that period. Between January and March of 2016, Region 1 is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall while Regions 2 and 3 are expected to receive normal to below normal rainfall.
While spates of normal to above normal rainfall feature prominently on the forecast, they are not constant.
The forecast also shows that the traditionally dry southern parts of the country may experience better rainfall than the northern parts that traditionally receives more rainfall.
From the data, the MSD deduced that the country may have to rely on cloud seeding to stimulate rainfall.
“There is a high likelihood of a late start to the season for the whole country,” said Lucy Motsi, a forecaster with MSD.
“A short rainfall season (December to February) is expected across the country hence an option for small grains, short season variety and staggering plants is encouraged.
“There is need to enhance rainfall this season, as such the national cloud seeding programme is highly recommended,” she said.
Following the forecast, stakeholders have called for united efforts to come up with effective solutions to the problem. Economists suggest that the country cannot afford to have another dry summer as this will put the economy into shambles.
Severe food shortages, malnutrition, live stork starvation, and depleted water reserves have been cited as some of the direct consequences of another dry season.
Agronomist Mr Peter Gambara called for early planting and irrigation saying that relying on rainfall would be a repeat of last year’s mistakes.
He added that everything is well in place in terms of land preparation and inputs but the country might fail to produce adequate maize again due to erratic rainfall if measures are not put in place to curb the problem.
“If we have a shorter rain season then our crops will not yield. If you look at last season, you will realise that everything was in place in terms of inputs and preparations, only the rains let us down. We should now be thinking of irrigation to avoid what happened last season.
“This year, farmers should consider early water planting so that the crops can be sustained by irrigation until the time the rainfall comes.”
President of Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union, Mr Wonder Chabikwa said communal farmers should consider growing small grains which are drought resistant.
“What this might mean is that we may have a repeat of last season and we need to be prepared for the worst case scenario,” he said.
“For those who can irrigate, they should do so because there are predictions that the whole region (Sadc) will be affected again. We may have a bigger crisis because even the imports will be hard to find as other regional countries will be affected as well.
“Farmers should also consider using varieties that mature quickly and are suitable for their areas. Small grains should be promoted so that food security is ensured.”
Unfortunately, last season’s inadequate rainfall not only affected agriculture but is also affecting power generation through depleted water levels.
Zesa, the national power utility, has been running press statements over the past two weeks warning electricity consumers of a depressed power generation due to low water levels in the Zambezi River which are due to a poor hydrological cycle in the past season.
The forecasts of a poor rainy season do not augur well with the Zambezi River situation, especially with regards to power generation at Kariba Dam.
However, despite the water level concerns, statistics from Zinwa show that the country’s water reservoirs are only 66,8 percent full out of a national average of 67,4 percent.
Mr Nyashadzashe Viriri from Zinwa said only Runde, Gwayi and Save catchment areas have water levels that are below average. He said although this has been caused by irrigation activities, particularly in Runde, the situation is not critical. MSD director Dr Amos Makarau urged people not to panic saying that weather predictions do not always come out as gloomy as predicted.
“There is need for us to maintain calm, especially from the members of the media because a lot of times wrong information is being put out there. Predictions show you what is likely to happen but sometimes they are not 100 percent accurate.”
He added that for those who want accurate information pertaining weather forecast, they should approach the MSD.
