The Sunday Mail
Tendai Chara – Extra Reporter
As signs of El Nino – a weather phenomenon which brings floods and severe drought to Southern Africa – becomes more evident, Zimbabwe’s preparedness to deal with natural disasters has once again been brought into question.
Weather forecasts by several reputable national and international organisations indicate that El Nino is brewing in the Pacific Ocean.
According to forecasts by the Climate Prediction Centre and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, there is an elevated chance of an El Nino event developing between August and October, and to continue through to early 2015.
El Nino raises chances of receiving below average rainfall during the main 2014-15 cropping season in Southern Africa and, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the phenomenon has been building up in the Pacific Ocean since July.
As a result, below average rainfall is expected from December to March, which is Southern Africa’s main crop-growing season.
During El Nino years, the start of the farming season can be delayed.
The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) predicts the chances of El Nino conditions manifesting by the end of the year as high as 80 percent.
Weather experts point to southern Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique as likely to have a 50 percent chance of below average October-December rains.
It is against this background that questions are being asked regarding Zimbabwe’s preparedness to minimise the effects of the looming phenomenon.
Early this year, several Government departments struggled to contain the effects of flooding after Tokwe-Mukosi Dam in Masvingo burst, leaving thousands of villagers in dire straits.
Mr Madzudzo Pawadyira, the Civil Protection Unit director, lamented the lack of resources to deal with natural disasters.
“The general preparedness in the country, I would say it is there. We are alive to the various hazards which are presenting themselves to us.
“However, to fully address them we need the necessary financial nourishment to be able to do so,” Mr Pawadyira said.
Mr Pawadyira said this to a Parliamentary Portfolio Committee earlier this year.
In the event of severe drought, the Grain Marketing Board, which has the mandate to build the Strategic Grain Reserve, might be found wanting – again due to resource constraints.
Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Irrigation Development Davis Marapira recently said Government expected farmers to deliver 500 000 tonnes of maize to GMB by the end of the 2013 / 2014 season.
The Strategic Grain Reserve should be 500 000 tonnes strong, and the country needs about 2,2 million tonnes for human and livestock consumption annually.
The country is, fortunately, expecting a good maize harvest overall this year, but the Strategic Grain Reserve cannot be assured.
Other Southern African countries are putting in place measures to reduce El Nino’s impact.
Media reports indicate that the Zambia Early Warning Unit has started preparing pamphlets to explain the phenomenon and provide advice on the best farming methods to cope with the impending drought.
El Nino has far-reaching consequences – spanning from food security to health, water and sanitation and hydropower management.
The worst El Nino-induced drought occurred in 1982 and is estimated to have caused between US$8 and US$15 billion worth of damage world-wide.
Southern Africa had its worst El Nino-related drought in 1991 with the region’s national economies severely affected.
In 1997-98, El Nino led to drought and massive forest fires in Indonesia. Flooding caused massive destruction of infrastructure and crops along the coast of Latin America with livestock and agriculture losses due to heavy rains in East Africa.
Epidemics of infectious diseases such as Rift Valley fever and malaria are also common.
During the 1991/ 92 drought, Zimbabwe’s stock market declined by 62 percent and GDP by 11 percent.
Research has shown that areas most frequently affected by below average rainfall are situated along a belt that extends from southern/central Mozambique and stretches westwards to Namibia and western South Africa.
Zimbabwe is yet to announce an official position regarding El Nino this year, though local climate experts are taking part in the 18th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) which is expected to come up with a 2014/ 15 rainfall forecast for the region.
Farmers need information on weather patterns so that they can adapt to the impending changes.
Once farmers know that the season may be dry, they can plan accordingly. The same goes if they know that conditions are likely to be favourable for specific crops.
Professor Amon Murwira, a lecturer with the University of Zimbabwe’s Department of Geography and Environmental Science, advised farmers to counter El Nino conditions by harnessing water.
“In a semi-arid country like ours, our farmers should treat each year as a potential drought year.
“My advice to farmers is very simple — catch the water, store it in reservoirs and then use it reliably,” Prof Murwira said.
